“The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits
fell last week, a sign the labor market was holding firm despite tensions
between the United States and its trading partners that have led to tit-for-tat
tariffs.” Story at…
HOME SALES (Bloomberg)
“U.S. purchases of new homes unexpectedly dipped to the
weakest pace in nine months as higher prices and mortgage rates sideline
demand, adding to signs of a cooling in the housing market, government data
showed Thursday.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.2% to 2857.
-VIX rose about 1% to 12.41.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.835% as of
this post.
Short post today…it’s been busy.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators slipped slightly
from +8 to +5 (a positive number is bullish) while the 10-day smoothed version
that negates the daily fluctuations improved from -17 to -7.
For the most part, today is slightly bullish as far as
indicators go. There are no strong
signals either way. Sentiment has been pulling back to a neutral position. It is bearish in my system, but only because
a bearish sign holds over for a few days.
I remain fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals slipped
to NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Intermediate/Long-Term
Indicator: Thursday, the Price and VIX indicators were positive; Volume was
neutral; Sentiment was bearish. Overall this is still a NEUTRAL indication.
