“Growth in US service sector activity unexpectedly
accelerated in the month of September, according to a report released by the
Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday. The ISM said its
non-manufacturing index climbed to 61.6…” Story at…
ADP EMPLOYMENT (HousingWire)
“U.S. employment rates continue to climb, increasing in
nearly every sector in September, according to the ADP and Moody's Analytics National
Employment Report.” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (OilPrice.com)
“Crude oil prices fell after the Energy Information
Administration reported an
8-million-barrel build in U.S. crude oil inventories for the week to September
28. Although expected by some analysts and industry observers, the build was
substantial enough to hurt prices.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 2926.
-VIX dipped about 0.4% to 11.61.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 3.185% as of 4:59PM.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators improved from -5
to -1 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the 10-day
smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dipped from -11 to -13
indicating that conditions are little changed from 2-weeks ago.
New 52-week lows were again much higher than new 52-week
highs. The last time the spread was as bad as today (new-low minus new-highs
were -189) was a week before the bottom of a 10% correction on 2 April 2018. We’re
near a top so this is a worry. I have not analyzed stats that would clarify negative spread as an indicator, it just seems like bad news if it occurs at a top. The broken record continues on
other ways of looking at new-high/new-low data.
As previously noted, (more broken record analysis) we
still have a significant warning from the Fosback Hi-Low Logic indicator and
this indicator is based on the fact that new 52-week highs and new 52-week lows
should not both be high numbers at the same time. In addition, New-highs are
falling. The markets are getting stretched, but topping indicators, RSI, Bollinger
Bands, Breadth vs. the S&P 500 still remain neutral.
As of yet, we do not have a Hindenburg Warning. (This indicator
supposedly precedes a sharp drop.) The Fosback Logic indicator is a part of the
Hindenburg Warning, even if it isn’t acknowledged by some definitions of the Warning.
I remain a very cautious Bull, fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the Price
indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX were neutral. Overall this
is a NEUTRAL indication.
