“The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB)
Small Business Optimism Index eased slightly from a record-high reading to
107.9 in September, the third highest in the survey’s 45-year history…“The
economy continues to deliver a spectacular performance for one so near its
record length. Small business owners continue to face labor force challenges
but are increasing compensation to keep up,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill
Dunkelberg.” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.1% to 2880.
-VIX rose about 2% to 15.95.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.207%.
Currently, my daily sum of 17 Indicators remained
unchanged at -3 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish) while the
10-day smoothed version that negates the daily fluctuations dropped from -41 to
-47 indicating that conditions are worse than 2-weeks ago.
Not much has changed since yesterday. I said that we’ll probably
drop below 2875 before this pullback ends and today the Index hit 2874 on an
intraday basis. A close around 2875 is not out of the question, but my guess is
that we won’t fall too much farther than the 2875 region.
I remain a cautious Bull, fully invested.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF
15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the
4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF)
outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%. In 2017 Technology (XLK) was ranked
in the top 3 Momentum Plays for 52% of all trading days in 2017 (if I counted
correctly.) XLK was up 35% on the year while the S&P 500 was up 18%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
*I rank the Dow 30 similarly to the ETF ranking system.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
remained Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action but should not be used alone for short term trading. They
are usually right, but they are often late.
They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would
have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on
Negative – no shorting).
I am now 50% invested in stocks. For me, fully invested
is a balanced 50% stock portfolio. As a retiree, this is a position with which
I am comfortable unless I am in full defense mode or feeling especially
optimistic.
INTERMEDIATE / LONG-TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, the Price
indicator was positive; Sentiment, Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
Overall this is a NEUTRAL indication.
