“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JP MORGAN BULLISH (msn.com)
“JPMorgan is bullish on stocks, especially for January,
as it sees strong economic growth without raging inflation in 2022. "Growth
should come in above trend in the coming quarters, driven by healthy consumer
and corporate activity," JPMorgan strategists led by Dubravko Lakos-Bujas
wrote in a commentary. In addition, "we believe investor positioning is
too bearish — the market has taken the hawkish central bank and bearish omicron
narratives too far," they said" Story at...
J.P.
Morgan Bullish on Growth, Value Stocks, Sees Inflation Easing (msn.com)
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 7:30 PM ET Monday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the
chart.
The big jump in new cases today is due, in part, to reduced reporting
over the Holiday. But, even on Christmas
day, the number of new cases reported was well above 100,000 so the 10-day
numbers are headed straight up – not a good sign.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 1.4% to 4791.
-VIX fell about 2% to 17.68
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.483%.
Bollinger Bands are overbought today, but there are not
enough other top indicators currently giving bear signals to get too worried.
We may guess that Santa will stay at east until the regular traders get back to
work after New Years.
The markets broadened out some today. 4.0% of all issues
traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high,
today, 27 December. This is above my bear indicator so this is a good
start. We can hope markets continue to
advance with more stocks participating in the rally. The 10-dMA of issues
advancing on the NYSE was above 50% and that suggests a broadening market too.
The 50-dMA of breadth remains below 50%, still a bad sign.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -1 to +4
today (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -40 to -35 (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around
a lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. VIX, Volume, Price & Sentiment are Neutral.
I am a cautious Bull. We’ll
see how long this market can keep going.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Gain in the last 40-days:
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
Gain in the last 40-days:
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals improved to BUY.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50%. I trade about 15-20% of the total
portfolio.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
