“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
PENDING HOME SALES (Advisor Perspectives)
“The National Association of Realtors released the
October data for their Pending Home Sales Index. According to the National
Association of Realtors®, "ending home sales slipped in November, receding
slightly after a previous month of gains." Story at... https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2021/12/29/pending-home-sales-subside-in-november?topic=real-estate
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.6 million barrels from the
previous week. At 420.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
7% below the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
CRASH COMING – IT’S YEAR 1999 SO SAY SOME STATS (Yahoo
Finance)
“Last week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week
high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low,
more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened
only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to
Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group...The smoothed-out
six-week moving-average condition happened several times throughout 1999 up
until March 24, 2000, when it “proved to be the final nail in the coffin.”
Story at....
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-1999-based-nyse-shares-215249905.html
That was the beginning of the year 2000, dot.com crash.
We’ll be paying attention in 2022, but I’m fully invested now.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website as
of 7:30 PM ET Wednesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the
chart.
Numbers are really high again – >400,000 new cases is
the new-normal. I came down with a real bad cold yesterday. Got very little
sleep last night. It is a chore to write
this today. Because it didn’t last long (I feel better today) and symptoms align
with Omicron, it is possible that I have the Omicron variant. Fully-vaxed so it
appears to be no problem - I’m not sure
I would have said that last night.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 4794. (Another
all-time high.)
-VIX fell about 3% to 16.95
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.557%.
The markets broadened out some today. 4.5% of all issues
traded on the NYSE made new, 52-week highs when the S&P 500 made a new all-time-high,
today, 29 December. This is above my bear indicator so this is a good
start. We can hope markets continue to
advance with more stocks participating in the rally. The 50-dMA of breadth
remains below 50%, still a bad sign.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +5 to +3
today (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -25 to -19 (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around
a lot.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. Price is bullish; VIX, Volume & Sentiment are
Neutral.
I am a cautious Bull. We’ll
see how long this market can keep going.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked
based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals slipped to HOLD.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 50% invested in stocks; this is my “normal” fully
invested stock-allocation of 50%. I trade about 15-20% of the total
portfolio.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
