“Justice Clarence Thomas has been predictably but
erroneously pilloried for writing in his Dobbs concurrence that other
precedents—including the rights to contraceptives, same-sex marriage and
consensual gay sex—ought to be reversed. But that’s not quite what he wrote...
[rather, he inquired] whether those same rights might be upheld under the
Privileges or Immunities Clause of the 14th Amendment, something that
libertarians have been advocating for decades. In other words, Justice Thomas
didn’t assert that the rights themselves have no constitutional pedigree, but
rather that the underlying cases securing those rights should be revisited
because of their faulty legal rationale.” Robert A. Levy,Chairman, Cato
Institute, Naples, Fla. From letters to the editor, WSJ 2 July 2022 at...
“Politico issued
a correction after critics called out media outlets for erroneously attributing
a theory about the COVID vaccine to Justice Clarence Thomas...Thomas included a
description of the healthcare workers’ belief [not his] that some
COVID vaccines were developed using aborted fetal cells” (my emphasis). From
Fox news at...
"Once a president is out of office, the primary
reasons to avoid prosecution — deference to impeachment and the need to avoid
distraction of the chief executive from his or her important duties — both
evaporate.” - Mark Osler, professor of
law at the University of St. Thomas.
FUNNY...but it could be Trump or Biden (although
Trump is “only” 76).
FACTORY ORDERS (US News)
“New orders for U.S.-manufactured goods increased more
than expected in May, bucking a slew of recent data showing a softening in the
economy and underscoring that demand for products remains strong even as the
Federal Reserve aggressively tightens financial conditions. The Commerce
Department said on Tuesday that factory orders rose 1.6% in May...” Story at...
HOW FAR COULD THE STOCK MARKET FALL – 2 INDICATORS
(msn.com)
“...If the S&P 500's forward P/E ratio were simply to
fall to the median of its historic pullback range (i.e., 13.5), the index would
decline by an additional 14.55% from where it closed on Thursday, June
30...Since the beginning of 1995, there have been three instances where margin
debt increased by 60% or more in a 12-month period....According to these two
indicators, which have proved fairly accurate over the past quarter of a
century, the S&P 500 is unlikely to find a bottom until somewhere between
2,400 and 3,235.” Story at...
How
Far Could the Stock Market Fall? 2 Indicators May Hold the Answer (msn.com)
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% to 3831.
-VIX rose about 3% to 27.54.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.805%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 20.1% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Days since Top: 125-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.7% BELOW its 200-dMA & 4.1%
BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see
it.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
MACD continues to improve along with my Money Trend
indicator, but as we saw last Friday, indicators are mostly neutral, overall. AS
a result, I am in watch-and-wait mode to see if we can call a top. If we get good signs of a top, I’ll establish
a short position.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators declined from +7 to
+5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +43 to +49. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long
Term NTSM indicator slipped to HOLD: VOLUME is bullish; PRICE, SENTIMENT &
VIX are Neutral.
I’m a Bear, longer-term. In the short-term, I am in wait-and-see
mode.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
