“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“U.S. stocks turned lower Monday following a report Apple (AAPL) plans to slow hiring and spending growth next year to prepare for a possible recession.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-news-live-updates-july-18-2022-105401497.html
“Home builders' confidence in the housing market has fallen significantly in July, dropping to 55 in the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI) released on Monday. The new number is a major drop from the 67 reported in June, the lowest number reported in the index since the midst of the pandemic in June 2020.” Story at...
https://www.newsweek.com/housing-market-index-july-2022-building-confidence-drops-1725552
“The shipments component of the Cass Freight Index® declined 2.3% on a y/y basis in June, similar to the 2.7% y/y decline in May... The shipments component has now been down 4 of 6 months this year on a y/y basis. That includes January, which was impacted significantly by Omicron, but there has not been much follow through on the rebound.” Report at...
https://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/june-2022
“Overall, 7% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q2 2022 to date. Of these companies, 60% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the five-year average of 77%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 2.0% above estimates, which is below the five-year average of 8.8%...The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the second quarter is 4.2%...If 4.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the lowest earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2020 (4.0%). Six of the 11 sectors are reporting (or are projected to report) year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Energy and Industrials sectors. On the other hand, five sectors are reporting (or are predicted to report) a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Financials sector.” Earning analysis at...
https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-earnings-season-update-july-15-2022
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UyGps7MbuV8
This is hard to read, but the current PE is about 19. If PE were to return to the average or median value over the last 12 years the S&P 500 would drop another 9%. Unfortunately, the max low in Oct of 2011 would take the S&P 500 down a lot further. I expect the more bearish scenario, but we’ll have to wait and see.
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 0.8% to 3831.
-VIX rose about 4% to 25.30.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.986%.
-Drop from Top: 20.1% as of today. 23.6% max.
-Trading Days since Top: 134-days.
The S&P 500 is 12.2% BELOW its 200-dMA & 2.5% BELOW its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, we hope to be able to call the bottom when we see it.
SH, short the S&P 500 ETF.
I added more to my SH position 7/18.
Ugly day today – up nearly 1% at noon. The Index gave up the gains in the afternoon to close down nearly 1%.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
My chart methodology is looking funky. Top four ETF ranking follows:
(1) IBB (2) XLV (3) XLU (4) DVY These are conservative, “investors-are-playing-defense,” leaders.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
