“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 448.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
IMPORTANT TEST FOR THE MARKETS (Heritage Capital)
“Last night and this morning we heard bad news from Microsoft, MMM and Boeing...I am not surprised at all that companies are guiding lower for Q1. I said that would happen. The key would be how much lower those stocks would go. And I have been crystal clear that any decline less than 5% would be very supportive of the bullish case. We will see in a few days for sure.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/the-test-begins/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dipped about a point to 4016.
-VIX slipped about 0.6% to 19.08.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.448%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 16.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 266-days.
The S&P 500 is 1.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 2.0% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech. We’ll see.
XLK – Technology ETF.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4.2%. (Trailing
1-year yield is 1.3%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll
sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
After Microsoft reported yesterday and the stock was up 4% in afterhours trading, I figured we were in the clear. Unfortunately, during the conference call Microsoft guided lower for this year and that tanked the Nasdaq and markets in the morning. Markets recovered later in the day – that looks like a bullish sign to me.
In addition, the long-term version of the Fosback Hi/Lo
Logic indicator issued a buy signal today. This looks like more confirmation of a bull
market, i.e., a return to the prior highs.
Today, the daily sum of 20 Indicators slipped from +4 to
+2 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations decreased from +89 to 79. (The trend
direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These
numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in
late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around
a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained
BUY: PRICE & VOLUME are positive. VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. My NTSM buy-signal was 27 September, based on improved internals at the retest low, about 2% before the bottom.)
The Advance / Decline Ratio improved to neutral so this headwind for the market is gone, at least for tomorrow.
Bottom line: I’m a BULL, but I am watching indicators
closely.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
BEST DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM
RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
...My current invested position
is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about
50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF.
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 448.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 3% above the five year average for this time of year.” Report at...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
“Last night and this morning we heard bad news from Microsoft, MMM and Boeing...I am not surprised at all that companies are guiding lower for Q1. I said that would happen. The key would be how much lower those stocks would go. And I have been crystal clear that any decline less than 5% would be very supportive of the bullish case. We will see in a few days for sure.” – Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/the-test-begins/
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dipped about a point to 4016.
-VIX slipped about 0.6% to 19.08.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 3.448%.
-Drop from Top: 16.3% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 266-days.
The S&P 500 is 1.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA & 2.0% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area.
QLD – (2xNas 100) The XLK bottomed 12 October, about the same time as when the S&P 500 retested its low. QLD seems like a decent bet even though the CNBC crowd doesn’t like Tech. We’ll see.
SSO – 2x S&P 500.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. Low PE; good Dividend; decent momentum.
BA – (Boeing) I am late on this one, but we’ll see.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
After Microsoft reported yesterday and the stock was up 4% in afterhours trading, I figured we were in the clear. Unfortunately, during the conference call Microsoft guided lower for this year and that tanked the Nasdaq and markets in the morning. Markets recovered later in the day – that looks like a bullish sign to me.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October, 7-days after the bottom. My NTSM buy-signal was 27 September, based on improved internals at the retest low, about 2% before the bottom.)
The Advance / Decline Ratio improved to neutral so this headwind for the market is gone, at least for tomorrow.
BEST ETFs - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
