“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (CNN)
“The number of open jobs in the United States has dropped to the lowest level since May 2021, a reflection of a labor market that is slowly settling back into balance after the Federal Reserve’s yearlong campaign to cool off the economy. Job openings totaled 9.59 million in March, according to monthly data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s down from an upwardly revised 9.974 million reported in February...” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/02/economy/jolts-job-openings-layoffs-march/index.html
There are now 1.65 jobs for every unemployed worker.
FACTORY ORDERS (rttnews)
“Reflecting a surge in new orders for durable goods, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased by slightly more than expected in March. The Commerce Department said factory orders advanced by 0.9 percent in March...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3360467/u-s-factory-orders-rebound-slightly-more-than-expected-in-march.aspx
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 1.1% to 4120.
-VIX rose about 11% to 17.78.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.429%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 14.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 333-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It been sagging recently on lower oil prices.
BA – Boeing reported 4/26/2023. It had good numbers and
gave good guidance. While BA bounced on
the news, it is down about 1% since it reported.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Tuesday, I was struck by the small number of advancing issues. They were 4 times as many down shares to up shares; Down volume was 5 times up volume; and new-highs, which had been advancing for the last three sessions, declined to 41 while new lows rose to 152. Those are bearish numbers, but one day does not make a trend. Indicators were down, but not enough to make a change in investment position. Recently, the Friday summary of indicators has been the best indicator for sell signals. Last Friday, the summary was mildly bullish.
Today was a statistically significant down-day. That just
means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics
show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about
60% of the time.
Today, the daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus
Bears) declined from -1 to -8 (a positive number is bullish; negatives
are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined
from -23 to -26. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number
for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based
on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
declined to HOLD: PRICE is positive; SENTIMENT, VIX & VOLUME are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 20 December, 8 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I am a cautious Bull. All eyes are on the
Fed. They will announce Wednesday. As I
wrote yesterday, I would not be surprised to see a comment from them that
markets will interpret as bearish. Today, we saw some of that worry.
Contrarians may suspect a bullish Fed tomorrow.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to HOLD. (Market Internals are a
decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be
used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.)
“The number of open jobs in the United States has dropped to the lowest level since May 2021, a reflection of a labor market that is slowly settling back into balance after the Federal Reserve’s yearlong campaign to cool off the economy. Job openings totaled 9.59 million in March, according to monthly data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s down from an upwardly revised 9.974 million reported in February...” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/02/economy/jolts-job-openings-layoffs-march/index.html
There are now 1.65 jobs for every unemployed worker.
“Reflecting a surge in new orders for durable goods, the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing new orders for U.S. manufactured goods increased by slightly more than expected in March. The Commerce Department said factory orders advanced by 0.9 percent in March...” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3360467/u-s-factory-orders-rebound-slightly-more-than-expected-in-march.aspx
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 1.1% to 4120.
-VIX rose about 11% to 17.78.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 3.429%.
-Drop from Top: 14.1% as of today. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 333-days.
The S&P 500 is 3.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 2.1% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to use the momentum charts and/or the Monday 40-day gain charts for trading the Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLE – Energy Sector ETF. It been sagging recently on lower oil prices.
KRE – Regional Banking ETF. This is a small position for me.
SHY – Short term bonds. 30-day yield is 4%. (Trailing 1-year yield is 1.6%.) I’ll hold this, but if the market retests the lows, I’ll sell it and buy stocks.)
Tuesday, I was struck by the small number of advancing issues. They were 4 times as many down shares to up shares; Down volume was 5 times up volume; and new-highs, which had been advancing for the last three sessions, declined to 41 while new lows rose to 152. Those are bearish numbers, but one day does not make a trend. Indicators were down, but not enough to make a change in investment position. Recently, the Friday summary of indicators has been the best indicator for sell signals. Last Friday, the summary was mildly bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
