Fed Minutes ... Housing Starts ... Indusrtrila Production ... Crude Inventories ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“I say this to my Republican colleagues who are defending
the indefensible: There will come a day when Donald Trump is gone, but your
dishonor will remain.” – Liz Cheney, for Republican Congresswoman from
Wyoming.
FOMC MINUTES (USA Today)
“Another interest rate hike is still on the table, according to
federal reserve officials. The newly-released minutes from the
Federal Open Market Committee’s July 25-26 meeting show that while some
officials were prepared to continue June's interest rates hike pause, members
continue to view inflation as a threat and are willing to hike rates further to
address it.” Story at...
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/08/16/fed-reserve-meeting-minutes-rate-hike-inflation/70605107007/
My cmt: well that’s a surprising piece of bad news.
HOUSING STARTS / PERMITS (fFox Business)
“Housing starts rose 3.9% last month to an annual rate of
1.45 million units, according to new Commerce Department data released
Wednesday. That is slightly above Refinitiv economists' forecast... Applications
to build – which measures future construction – also inched higher, climbing
0.1% over the course of the month...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/housing-starts-rise-more-expected-july-despite-rising-mortgage-rates
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Floor Daily)
“In July, total industrial production increased 1.0% following
declines in the previous two months, according to the Federal Reserve... total
industrial production in July was 0.2% below its year-earlier level.” Story
at...
https://www.floordaily.net/flooring-news/industrial-production-rose-10-in-july
EIA CRUDE INVENTORIES (EIA)
“U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those
in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.0 million barrels from the
previous week. At 439.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about
1% below the five year average for this time of year.” Story...
https://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.8% to 4404.
-VIX rose about 2% to 16.78.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.283
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 8.2%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 405-days.
The S&P 500 is 6.8% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1% BELOW
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Utilities were bought today along with Consumer Staples
(another defensive sector) and Materials, an inflation protector. All other sectors were down. Apparently, some
fear is creeping into the mix.
Bollinger Bands were oversold, today, Wednesday. RSI was
not and I like to use these 2 signals together, this is not the buy signal you
are looking for. He can go about his business. Move along.
4200 to 4300 looks like possible support around the lower
trend line and the 100-dMA.
My Money Trend indicator remains negative as does
Buying-Pressure, Minus Selling-Pressure. The Smart Money (late-day action) is
selling, too.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from -9 to -6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations remained -71. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME is bearish; PRICE, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull. The pullback
(underway) is needed to bring the markets back into balance.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I do have
a fair amount of cash on hand. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
