Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-not-above-the-law?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
"You mean, some highly intelligent being goes 10,000
light-years with advanced technology, arrives here and hides? It doesn’t make
any sense." – William Shatner.
“He [Trump] can say whatever he wants. He can even lie.
He can even tell people that the election was stolen, when he knew better. But
that does not protect you from entering into a conspiracy. All conspiracies
involve speech. And all fraud involves speech. So, free speech doesn’t give you
the right to engage in a fraudulent conspiracy... we have conservative
governors who are winning substantial victories, broadening the party, bringing
people in... And I think that can be done, on the national level, by any of our
candidates, but Trump. Trump has already shown that he cannot forge that kind
of decisive victory at the national level. He’s a three-time loser. And I think
he will clearly lose again on the national level.” - Bill Barr, Attorney
General under Trump. Taken from a CNN interview at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/bill-barr-trump-what-matters/index.html
“I think Biden has turned the keys of the kingdom over to
radical progressives. And in terms of his personal ethics, I think there’s some
red flags there that I think people should be paying attention to. I don’t
think he’s morally superior, necessarily, to Trump...” - Bill Barr, Attorney
General under Trump. Taken from a CNN interview at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/03/politics/bill-barr-trump-what-matters/index.html
“Rare Signals Say Stock Weakness Should Be Followed by
Higher Highs” – Chris Ciovacco, Ciovacco Capital. Video presentation at...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tiNOMNbugeo
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 4518.
-VIX fell about 8% to 15.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4090
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 5.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 398-days.
The S&P 500 is 10.2% ABOVE its 200-dMA
(overbought) and 2.3% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Up-day today...The S&P 500 got to within 1.6% of its
50-dMA. That’s not far my first guess. I
increased my downside guess because the longer-term charts suggested a deeper
decline was possible. That would be a decline to the 100-dMA (4250). I suspect the Index needs to at least touch
the 50-dMA (4400) before it can make a move to new highs.
Today was a fairly big up day (just short of a
statistically significant day in my system) and that is followed by a down day
about 60% of the time. This would be consistent with some ongoing weakness in
the markets. We often see back and forth
big moves at the start of pullbacks – of course it could also just be dip
buyers moving in, so aI’ll just be watching for now.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) declined
from -7 to -9 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the
10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -31
to -45. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the
10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on
data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they
tend to bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE, VIX, VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull. The pullback
(underway) is needed to bring the markets back into balance. I’ll go back to an
over-invested position later, probably the S&P 500 drops below the 50-dMA
but probably not to the 100-dMA.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%.
The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
