Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“In a third major campaign shakeup, the DeSantis campaign
replaces its campaign manager.” - Michael Ramirez. Poitical commentary at...
https://michaelramirez.substack.com/p/michael-ramirez-all-is-not-well-08?r=ntzh3&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Just a reminder...
CLIMATE CHANGE HASN’T SET THE WORLD ON FIRE (WSJ)
“One of the most common tropes in our increasingly
alarmist climate debate is that global warming has set the world on fire. But
it hasn’t. For more than two decades, satellites have recorded fires across the
planet’s surface. The data are unequivocal: Since the early 2000s, when 3% of
the world’s land caught fire, the area burned annually has trended downward.” -
Bjorn Lomborg, president of the Copenhagen Consensus, visiting fellow at
Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and author of “False Alarm: How
Climate Change Panic Costs Us Trillions, Hurts the Poor, and Fails to Fix the
Planet.”
CLIMATE SCIENTIST – IT’S A MANUFACTURED CRISIS (msn.com)
“...there is ‘climate change industry’ that rewards
alarmism. The origins go back to the U.N. environmental program,’ says Curry
[American climatologist Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology]. “U.N.
officials were motivated by ‘anti-capitalism. They hated the oil companies and
seized on the climate change issue to move their policies along... If you
wanted to advance in your career, like be at a prestigious university and get a
big salary, have big laboratory space, get lots of grant funding, be director
of an institute, there was clearly one path to go.” Story at...
Climate
Scientist Blows The Lid Off The ‘Manufactured Consensus’ (msn.com)
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 4490.
-VIX slipped about 0.1% to 14.82.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.200
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 6.4%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since Top: 403-days.
The S&P 500 is 9% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 1% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the bottom was in the 3600 area
and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
I am not trading as much as in the past. You may wish to
use the momentum charts and/or the Monday, 40-day gain charts for trading the
Dow stocks and ETFs.
XLK – Technology ETF.
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF.
SHY – Short term bonds.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I considered adding stocks today, but internals didn’t look
good around noon. They improved later in
the day, but still were generally negative at the close. Decliners outpaced
advancers; New-lows outpaced new-highs; and declining volume outpaced advancing
volume. Further, my Money Trend indicator turned negative again, Monday.
On a more positive note, Utilities (XLU) were sold so
investors were not betting on safety trades.
Still, the S&P 500 is only about 2% below its recent
high of 4589 just 2 weeks ago. It doesn’t
seem like that’s enough to reset the market.
There are a lot of dip buyers though, so a bounce higher would not be a
surprise.
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) remained
-6 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed
sum that smooths the daily fluctuations declined from -58 to -65. (The
trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.)
These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes
in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce
around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important BUY in this indicator was on 21 October,
7-days after the bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a
short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved
market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was
unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock
holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom,
based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The
NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this
recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
Bottom line: I remain a cautious Bull. The pullback
(underway) is needed to bring the markets back into balance.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking
follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I do have
a fair amount of cash on hand. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. If I can see
a definitive bottom, I’ll add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an
S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.
