ISM Non-Manufacturing ... JOLTS – Job Openings ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“We had four years of Donald Trump, and he blustered and
bragged and threatened and so forth, and yet he didn’t bring us to the brink of
dictatorship... He’s more likely to drive the Republican Party into defeat at
the hands of Joe Biden than he is to drive the country toward dictatorship.”
– Brit Hume, Fox News Analyst.
“Donald Trump is not going to be able to beat [President
Biden] from a courtroom in Washington, D.C., while he’s fighting his indictment
on the Jan. 6 case... And let me tell you, that indictment got much tougher for
him to beat when his own chief of staff has now accepted immunity and will
testify against him about the lies he told in the aftermath of Jan. 6, and what
he was told by his own people about the fact that he had lost the election.” –
Chris Christie, former Governor of New Jersey.
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (YahooFinance)
“The U.S. services sector picked up in November amid an
increase in business activity, although new orders remained flat and a gauge of
input inflation dipped as the lagged effects of higher interest rates start to
have a greater impact. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on
Tuesday that its non-manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in November from 51.8,
which was a 5-month low.” Story at...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-sector-picks-november-ism-150226943.html
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (CNN)
“In October, the ‘Now Hiring’ signs weren’t as plentiful
as they have been in recent years, and more workers chose to stay put.
There were an estimated 8.7 million available jobs in the
month, according to data released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. There
are an estimated 1.3 jobs available for every unemployed person, BLS data
shows.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/05/economy/jolts-job-openings-layoffs-october/index.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 slipped about 0.1% to 4567.
-VIX dipped about 2% to 12.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 4.167%.
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 4.8%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 483-days. (The top was
3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 6.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 4.5% ABOVE
its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500
makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25%
decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022
lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the
October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY Monday, 8/21.)
I took profits and then reestablished positions as
follows:
SPY – I bought a large position in the S&P 500
Friday, 8/14, in my 401k (it has limited choices).
XLE – Added Tuesday, 8/22.
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
MSFT – added 11/16/2023.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
Not much change today: The S&P 500 has been drifting
sideways toward its up-sloping, lower trend-line. I expect the rally will
resume later this week or next. I am still seeing at least 20 Bullish
indicators in my nearly complete Summary of Indicators so I am not concerned about the current
weakness.
The daily spread of selected, short-term, 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved
from +3 to +7 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day
smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from +39 to +44.
(The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day
value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that
comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to
bounce around a lot.
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are bullish; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained BUY. (My basket of Market Internals
is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not
be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge
from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m
usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new,
all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash. I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
I trade about 15-20% of the
total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a
definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P
500 ETF as I did back in October.
