Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
CPI is out Tuesday.
 
TRUMP LEADS IN WSJ POLL (WSJ)
“President Biden’s political standing is at its weakest point of his presidency, a new Wall Street Journal poll finds, with voters giving him his lowest job-performance marks and favoring Donald Trump for the first time in a head-to-head test of the likely 2024 presidential matchup. Biden lags behind Trump by 4 percentage points, 47% to 43%, on a hypothetical ballot with only those two candidates. Trump’s lead expands to 6 points, 37% to 31%, when five potential third-party and independent candidates are added to the mix.” Story at... 
https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-takes-2024-lead-as-biden-approval-hits-new-low-wsj-poll-finds-fb4fca0c
As I have suggested before...
If you are a Democrat and your state allows you to vote in the Republican primary (as does Virginia), please crossover and vote for Nikki Haley in the primary. We need to keep this nut case (Trump) off the Presidential Ballot. This strategy is not counter to Democrat voters. Since Trump would then run as an independent, Trump would split the Republican vote, thus getting his revenge on the Rino Republicans (as he calls anyone who doesn’t support him) and possibly handing the election to Biden. I support any move that will get rid of Trump.
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 4622. (This is another new 52-week high but not an all-time high.)
-VIX rose about 2% to 12.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.237%.
 
PULLBACK DATA:
-Drop from Top: 3.6%. 25.4% max (on a closing basis).
-Trading Days since All-Time Top: 487-days. (The top was 3 January 2022.)
The S&P 500 is 7.4% ABOVE its 200-dMA and 5.2% ABOVE its 50-dMA.
*I won’t call the correction over until the S&P 500 makes a new-high; however, evidence suggests the major bear-market bottom (25% decline) was in the 3600 area and we called a buy on 4 October 2022.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Technology ETF (holding since the October 2022 lows).
XLY - Consumer Discretionary ETF. (Holding since the October 2022 lows - I bought more XLY 8/21.)
 
I took profits and then reestablished positions as follows:
SSO – 2x S&P 500 ETF. Added 8/24.
QLD – Added 8/30.
 
INTC – Added 12/6/2023.
BA – Added 12/6/2023. Boeing has been doing well recently.  They have the orders for new planes – can they execute? I’m guessing yes, since the market seems to think they will.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023. This is a large position in my retirement account.
 
TODAY’S COMMENT:
I get my market internals information from WSJ. That data is non-existent at the usual WSJ links.  I got the information from another Daily Diary site at WSJ.  That site usually only updates until 4pm and those are not the final numbers.  I’ll check later, but for now, I am using the 4PM data, so my indicators may be off today.
 
The daily spread of 20 Indicators (Bulls minus Bears) improved from +4 to +5 (a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum that smooths the daily fluctuations remained +37. (The trend direction is more important than the actual number for the 10-day value.) These numbers sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late. Most of these 20 indicators are short-term so they tend to bounce around a lot.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE & VIX are bullish; VOLUME & SENTIMENT are neutral.
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain bullish.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
DOW 30 momentum ranking follows:

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 

...My current invested position is about 75% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks. I’m “over invested” now expecting new, all-time highs this year. That burns all the cash.  I have about 25% of the portfolio in bonds.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October.