Jobless Claims ... Durable Orders ... GDP ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or
anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” -
Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Gross Domestic Product (GDP). GDP is
simply the total amount of spending in an economy. GDP, as currently measured,
does not distinguish between “good” spending and “bad” spending. GDP does not
distinguish between consumption spending and investment spending. GDP also does
not distinguish whether spending is generated by existing wealth, by going into
debt temporarily, or by going into debt permanently. In this world, every dollar spent on education
or new means of production, is counted the same as every dollar spent on epic
bachelor parties and video games.” – Michael Lebowitz, Real Investment Advice
JOBLESS CLAIMS (AP News)
“The Labor Department reported Thursday that jobless
claims for the week ending June 22 fell by 6,000 to 233,000 from 239,000 the
previous week. However, the total number of Americans collecting unemployment
benefits rose for the eighth straight week, to 1.84 million, for the week of
June 15. That’s the most since November of 2021.” Story at...
https://apnews.com/article/unemployment-benefits-jobless-claims-labor-layoffs-20f4abbd8a1821160c514cc648e4dc20
DURABLE ORDERS (fxstreet)
“In what was a better-than-anticipated outturn, new
orders for durable goods rose 0.1% in May (chart). We were bracing for overall
orders to be constrained by nondefense aircraft based on a relatively low
number of orders reported by Boeing during the month. In actuality nondefense
aircraft orders slipped 'only' 2.8% in May, and defense and motor vehicle
orders were up, offsetting some of the weakness.” Story at..
https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/durable-goods-orders-continue-to-showcase-weak-capex-demand-202406271407
GDP-FINAL (Marketplace.org)
“...The Fed particularly wants to know how GDP is
changing and how much growth is slowing. The answer? Pretty
substantially. GDP growth fell from 3.4% in the last quarter of 2023 to
1.4% at the beginning of this year.” Story at...
https://www.marketplace.org/2024/06/27/breaking-down-fed-chair-jay-powells-latest-gdp-report-analysis/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 rose about 0.1% to 5482.
-VIX declined about 2% to 12.24.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.286%
(compared to this time yesterday).
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market
Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index,
also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a
comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks
that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which
comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a
complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap
companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear
Indicators) was 10 Bear-signs and 12-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal
to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom
indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple
line in the chart below declined, a bearish sign.
TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread improved slightly from
+1 to +2 (2 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). This remains a Neutral
indication.
The S&P 500 is 12.8% above the 200-dMA and that
remains stretched. The bear sign is greater than 12%.
Market Internals continued their back-and-forth bull/bear
moves. Today they were bullish, but the 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE
dropped below 50% (again). That’s a bearish sign that once again reminds us
that breadth has been less than stellar recently. The series of new all-time highs for the S&P
500 between 10 and 18 June were accompanied by weak 52-week all-time highs
showing a narrow advance. We hope that stat will improve. If it doesn’t, it
will again warn that a correction, if one were to occur, would likely be 10% or
greater (based on past history).
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator
remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator.
It can signal BUY at a top.)
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21
October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal,
I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September
(based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market
follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and
increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the
final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals
signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high
of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of
indicators.)
BOTTOM LINE
No change: I am Neutral on the market as a whole. The
trend in indicators has been down recently and price has been relatively flat.
The most likely market move seems to be down, but it is not a given. All eyes are on the PCE news tomorrow.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but
should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they
diverge from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 55% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. (I’ll need
to recalculate this.) I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a
bullish, over-invested position. 75% is my max stock allocation so I have some
cash now.
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a
lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did
back in October 2022 and 2023.
