Retail Sales ... Industrial Production ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
JUNETEENTH
“Even though the Emancipation Proclamation was made effective in 1863, it could not be implemented in places still under Confederate control. As a result, in the westernmost Confederate state of Texas, enslaved people would not be free until much later. Freedom finally came on June 19, 1865, when some 2,000 Union troops arrived in Galveston Bay, Texas. The army announced that the more than 250,000 enslaved black people in the state, were free by executive decree. This day came to be known as "Juneteenth," by the newly freed people in Texas.” From...
https://www.google.com/search?q=NYSE+close+for+Juneteenth%3F&sca_esv=e10f498d10acc07c&sca_upv=1&source=hp&ei=6PRxZrnZCs-kiLMPvtGQ0A4&iflsig=AL9hbdgAAAAAZnIC-HmHaEqx9na5rOsanRc0QcSVBdB-&ved=0ahUKEwi57e65heaGAxVPEmIAHb4oBOoQ4dUDCBc&uact=5&oq=NYSE+close+for+Juneteenth%3F&gs_lp=Egdnd3Mtd2l6IhpOWVNFIGNsb3NlIGZvciBKdW5ldGVlbnRoPzIGEAAYFhgeMgsQABiABBiGAxiKBTILEAAYgAQYhgMYigVI-EZQAFjGQnAAeACQAQCYAW6gAdEOqgEEMjUuMbgBA8gBAPgBAZgCGqACwQ_CAgsQABiABBixAxiDAcICCxAuGIAEGLEDGIMBwgIREC4YgAQYsQMY0QMYgwEYxwHCAg4QABiABBixAxiDARiKBcICEBAAGIAEGLEDGIMBGIoFGArCAggQABiABBixA8ICDhAuGIAEGLEDGMcBGK8BwgIFEAAYgATCAgQQABgDwgIHEAAYgAQYDcICCBAAGAgYDRgewgIIEAAYgAQYogTCAggQABgWGB4YD5gDAJIHBDI1LjGgB6WTAQ&sclient=gws-wiz
 
Markets will be closed Wednesday, 19 June, so no Blog Post tomorrow.
 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
THE ICC [INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT OF THE HAGUE] BETRAYS THE LEGACY OF NUREMBURG (WSJ excerpt)
“After World War II, jurists understood that law must serve morality. Today that premise is inverted... [Judges in the Nuremburg Trials wrote] ‘A city is bombed for tactical purposes. . .  It inevitably happens that nonmilitary persons are killed . . . an unavoidable corollary of battle action . . . that is entirely different, both in fact and in law, from an armed force . . . dragging out the men, women and children and shooting them...’
 
... The threat to moral civilization is grave: Unaccountable terrorists—the new death squads—can massacre and kidnap babies, women and the elderly and hide behind innocents, and accountable governments are powerless to defend against such tactics without taking steps that inflict unwanted casualties. Legal strategies that erase the distinction between the two sides invert Nuremberg’s accomplishment. They sublimate morality to a superficial legality. It isn’t just the legacy of Nuremberg that is at stake; it is the defense of civilization.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-icc-betrays-the-legacy-of-nuremberg-c44d850f?mod=opinion_feat2_commentary_pos3
 
RETAIL SALES (Fox Business)
“Retail sales, a measure of how much consumers spent on a number of everyday goods including cars, food and gasoline, rose just 0.1% in May, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. That is notably lower than the 0.3% increase forecast by LSEG economists...” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/retail-sales-barely-rise-may-consumers-pump-brakes-spending
 
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Yahoo Finance)
“Manufacturing output jumped 0.9% last month following a downwardly revised 0.4% drop in April, the Federal Reserve said on Tuesday.” Story at... 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-manufacturing-production-surges-may-135409972.html
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.3% to 5487.
-VIX declined about 4% to 12.30.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.219%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) improved slightly to 12 Bear-signs and 14-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) continues moving higher, a bullish sign.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
Market Internals improved today. We still need to see breadth improve to clear the Hindenburg Omen warning and other bearish breadth related indicators.
 
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) turned overbought today.
Relative Strength measures the size of up-moves vs. all-moves on a 14-day moving average basis and presents the result as a percentile. For example; if the RSI is 85, it means that the size of up-moves are in the 85th percentile when compared to all moves over the 14-day period.  If ALL moves had been up, RSI would be 100 – a definite short term sell indicator. For my purposes, 30 is oversold (suggesting a turn-around to the upside) and 80 is overbought. If the up-moves and down-moves are equal in size over the 14-day period, RSI would be 50.
 
I use RSI with Bollinger Bands.  Bollinger Bands have been overbought recently and Bollinger Bands are close to overbought now. If Bollinger Bands and RSI are both overbought that would give us a top warning (when combined with other already bearish top-indicators) and I’d have to make a decision regarding reducing stock investments.
 
Tuesday, there were only 94 new, 52-week-highs on the NYSE on a day when the S&P 500 made a new, all-time high.  That suggests a narrow advance. This indicator has presaged corrections of 10% or greater.  Breadth remains a worry.
 
The 10-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE is still below 50%, indicating that for the periods 2-weeks, less than half of all issues on the NYSE have up. These stats just reinforce the narrow advance.
 
As noted yesterday, we don’t yet expect a big decline to start now.  The Bull/Bear indicator spread is +2 (2 more Bull indicators than bear indicators). This is a Neutral to slightly bullish indication, but the S&P 500 is 13.6% above the 200-dMA. The bear sign is greater than 12% so this can be a drag on markets.
 
A correction could start now (one could start any time for that matter); but my guess, based on indicators, is that a correction is not here yet.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained BUY: PRICE, VOLUME & VIX are bullish; SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
Same as yesterday: I am neutral. Markets are stretched and breadth is looking weak. A 10% retreat is possible, although we don’t have a sell signal at this point.  
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. 75% is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.