... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“A remarkable 2 billion tons of rare Earth minerals have reportedly been unearthed at a mining site in the United States. This discovery can potentially disrupt China’s control over the industry, leading to a significant shift in the global rare Earth minerals market, with the US coming out on top.” From...
Wyoming Strikes 2.34 Billion Tons of Rare Minerals, Leaving China Rattled (msn.com)
 
"'In the Democratic Party, not everybody gets their way, but everybody gets a voice. In the Republican Party, there's just one voice.”- Christopher Gibbs, Farmer, Shelby County Ohio.
 
“The latest Fox News poll is TRASH! They used a biased, Democrat-leaning sample of voters, polling more Biden 2020 voters than Trump 2020 voters to skew the results in favor of Crooked Joe. I am leading BIG in virtually every other poll, including in all of the key battleground states.” – Donald Trump.
My cmt: The lady doth protest too much, methinks.
 
WILL DEBT SINK THE AMERICAN EMPIRE? (WSJ)
“In the presidential race, there’s not much partisan difference or advantage on this subject. Donald Trump and President Biden have overseen similar additions to the nation’s accumulated debt—in the range of $7 trillion in each case—during their terms. The national response to both has been, by and large, to look the other way. History, however, offers some cautionary notes about the consequences of swimming in debt. Over the centuries and across the globe, nations and empires that blithely piled up debt have, sooner or later, met unhappy ends.
 
Historian Niall Ferguson recently invoked what he calls his own personal law of history: “Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire, this law is about to be put to the test by the U.S. beginning this very year.” Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/will-debt-sink-the-american-empire-8459096b
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.3% to 5448.
-VIX rose about 1% to 13.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.234%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
UWM – Added 5/2/2024
QLD – Added 4/29/2024
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.
 
DWCPF - Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index. – Added 12/7/2023 when I sold the S&P 500.
“The Dow Jones U.S. Completion Total Stock Market Index, also known as the DWCPF, is a widely used financial index that provides a comprehensive measure of the US equity market. The DWCPF includes all US stocks that are not included in the Dow Jones US Total Stock Market Index, which comprises large-cap and mid-cap companies. As a result, the DWCPF provides a complete picture of the US stock market, including small-cap and micro-cap companies, which are often overlooked by other indexes.” From...
https://fi.money/blog/posts/what-is-dow-jones-u-s-completion-total-stock-market-index-dwcpf
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
The Bull/Bear Spread (Bull Indicators minus Bear Indicators) remained 7 Bear-signs and 17-Bull. (The rest are neutral. It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of those are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.) The 10-dMA of spread (purple line in the chart below) bounced higher today – a bullish sign.

TODAY’S COMMENT:
The Bull/Bear, 50-Indicator spread jumped from -2 to +10 (10 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators). This is a nice Bullish reversal. Internals improved too.
 
For the day, 72% of volume on the NYSE was up-volume; advancing issues outpaced declining issues 2 to 1; advancing volume was nearly 3x declining volume; and there were 3x as many new, 52-week highs as new-lows. Those are solid numbers and I would have guessed that the S&P 500 would have been higher – I would have been wrong on that guess. The Index refused to go along, but I would expect it to be higher tomorrow.
 
The S&P 500 is 12.4% above the 200-dMA and that remains stretched. The bear sign is greater than 12%.
 
LONG-TERM INDICATOR: The Long Term NTSM indicator remained HOLD: PRICE is bullish; VOLUME, VIX & SENTIMENT is neutral.
(The Long-Term Indicator is not a good top-indicator. It can signal BUY at a top.)
 
(The important major BUY in this indicator was on 21 October 2022, 7-days after the bear-market bottom. For my NTSM overall signal, I suggested that a short-term buying opportunity occurred on 27 September (based on improved market internals on the retest), although without market follow-thru, I was unwilling to call a buy; however, I did close shorts and increased stock holdings. I issued a Buy-Signal on 4 October, 6-days before the final bottom, based on stronger market action that confirmed the market internals signal. The NTSM sell-signal was issued 21 December, 9 sessions before the high of this recent bear market, based on the bearish “Friday Rundown” of indicators.)
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bullish, but if market action is weak again tomorrow (especially tech), I will sell QLD and possibly some of my XLK position.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals Improved to BUY. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index.) 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 65% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. I’m usually about 50% invested in stocks, so this is a bullish, over-invested position. 75% is my max stock allocation so I have some cash now.
 
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see a definitive bottom, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.