Existing Home Sales ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
DOGE FINDS BIDEN EPA GAVE $2 BILLION TO ? (Western Journal)
“Current EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin commented, ‘It’s extremely concerning that an organization that reported just $100 in revenue in 2023 was chosen to receive $2 billion. That’s 20 million times the organization’s reported revenue.’
Zeldin tied this grant to the Biden administrations scheme in parking $20 billion outside a financial institution shortly before leaving office, saying, ‘As we continue to learn more about where some of this money went, it is even more apparent how far-reaching and widely accepted this waste and abuse has been.’" Story at...
Trump Admin Makes 'Extremely Concerning' Discovery About Biden EPA - Billions Set Aside for Stacey Abrams-Linked Group
 
TRUMP’S UKRAINE SELLOUT? (WSJ-Excerpt)
“In recent days, Trump — who has cozied up with Russian President Vladimir Putin since the Kremlin interfered in the 2016 presidential election — has backed off the longtime stance the U.S. has held in solidarity with Europe to protect Ukraine from the yearslong, brutal Russian invasion, falsely suggesting Ukraine started the war and offering up "peace" proposals that one-sidedly give all concessions to Russia... The U.S. has a profound interest in denying Mr. Putin a new perch on more of the NATO border, which is the real reason America has been right to arm Ukraine. A deal that amounts to Ukrainian surrender will be a blow to American power that will radiate to the Pacific and the Middle East. It would be the opposite of Mr. Trump’s promise to restore a golden age of U.S. prestige and world calm... Last week Mr. Trump said Ukraine can’t join NATO and must give up much of its territory to Russia—concessions to Mr. Putin with nothing in return. Mr. Putin’s response this week has been more drone attacks on Ukraine. And here we thought Mr. Trump doesn’t like being played... As it stands now, Mr. Trump’s seeming desperation for a deal is a risk to Ukraine, Europe, U.S. interests—and his own Presidency.”- WSJ Editorial Board. Full opinion at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-10464d9c?mod=opinion_lead_pos4
 
TRUMP ASKING FAR TOO MUCH OF UKRAINE (NY Post)
“President Trump’s demand that Ukraine sign over a huge chunk of its economy as repayment for help fending off Russia is flat-out wrong. Period.
The proposed contract, which reportedly hit Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky’s desk last week, demands half the country’s revenues from natural resources, ports and infrastructure indefinitely as payback for US military aid since the war began. That would quickly add up to countless billions more than we’ve given Ukraine; it’s a demand that a victor might make of a country that started and lost a war, to teach a lesson.
Indeed, as a share of GDP, it looks to be harsher than what the victorious allies imposed on Germany in the Peace of Versailles after World War I.” Story at...
https://nypost.com/2025/02/18/opinion/trump-is-asking-for-far-too-much-payback-from-war-torn-ukraine/
 
EXISTING HOME SALES (NAR)
“Existing-home sales fell 4.9% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.08 million in January 2025. Year-over-year, sales improved 2.0%.” Press release from...
https://www.nar.realtor/research-and-statistics/housing-statistics/existing-home-sales
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1.7% to 6013.
-VIX rose about 17% to 18.38.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.431%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Added more 9/20/2024.
QLD – added 12/20/2024. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025.
 
The decline in Nvidia appears to be overblown. Regarding competition to Nvidia, Dan Ives (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities) says, “The threat is minimal.” He recommended buying Nvidia. I will hold NVDA and see what develops... 
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 
TODAY’S COMMENT
Options trading ended today so volumes were very high, about 20% above the monthly average. That contributed to a wild day and the indicators reacted, too.
 
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell to a Bearish -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The 10-dMA of the spread continued falling, a bearish sign.
 
Breadth continued down.  The % of issues advancing on the NYSE is falling on all time frames that I measure. The % of issues advancing is below 50% for 10-day, 50-day, and 100-day periods. Indicators are suggesting it’s time to sell some stocks, but perhaps not yet. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-dMA, but recovered to finish 0.1% above the 50-dMA at the close. The 50-day is a strong level of support and is normally around the lower trend line, so it is not time to panic. This may be just normal weakness. If price and indicators continue down, all bets are off.
 
I’ll trim my stock holdings if indicators continue down and the S&P 500 breaks below its 50-dMA. That might not be on Monday.
 
Friday was a statistically significant down-day. That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day about 60% of the time. 
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am neutral - 60% in stocks – let’s see what next week brings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

 
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.