Trump Ukraine Double-Cross ... Dallas Fed Business Index ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Things are not as they appear to be in Washington. While Elon Musk and the Department for Government Efficiency are trimming the fat, finding billions—if not trillions—in waste, fraud, and abuse, the Senate is rushing to pass a budget that increases spending. What gives?” – Senator Rand Paul, (R) Kentucky.
 

“We realize that, if we stop resisting, we will face extermination and genocide—just as it already happened in our past.” -  Olena Styazhkina, Ukrainian historian and writer.
 
US VOTES WITH RUSSIA AT UN (CNN)
“The United States joined Russia to vote against a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Russia’s war against Ukraine Monday in a stunning shift from years of US policy. The vote against the Ukrainian and European-backed resolution saw the US at odds with its longtime European allies and instead aligned with the aggressor in the war on the three-year anniversary of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.” Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/02/24/politics/us-joins-russia-ukraine-un-vote/index.html
My cmt: WHY????? Answer below:
TRUMP ASKED ZELENSKY TO INVESTIGATE BIDEN (NBC News - 2019)
“President Donald Trump, in a midsummer phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, asked him to look into why that country's top prosecutor apparently had ended an investigation of the business dealings of Joe Biden’s son, who served on the board of a Ukrainian gas company.
"(Then-Vice President Joe) Biden went around bragging that he stopped the prosecution, so if you can look into it. ... It sounds horrible to me," Trump told Zelenskiy during the 30-minute July 25 phone call.” Story at...
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/trump-impeachment-inquiry/trump-asked-ukraine-leader-phone-call-look-why-investigation-biden-n1058551
My cmt: Is the Ukraine double-cross just Trump’s revenge?
 
US Votes with Russia against ukraine? That looks like a high crime and misdemeanor to me.
 
DALLAS FED BUSINESS INDEX (Dallas Fed)
“Texas factory activity fell in February after rising notably in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell 21 points to -9.1. Other measures of manufacturing activity also declined this month. The new orders index fell 11 points to -3.5, and the capacity utilization index slid 14 points to -8.7. The shipments index remained positive but edged down to 5.6.” Dallas Fed report at...
https://www.dallasfed.org/research/surveys/tmos/2025/2502
 
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Monday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 5983.
-VIX rose about 6% to 19.24.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to about this time, prior trading day) to 4.40%.
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
XLK – Holding since the October 2022 lows.  Cut position in half – Monday, 2/24.
QLD – added 12/20/2024. (IRA acct.)
NVDA – added 1/6/2025.
 
The decline in Nvidia appears to be overblown. Regarding competition to Nvidia, Dan Ives (Managing Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst covering the Technology sector at Wedbush Securities) says, “The threat is minimal.” He recommended buying Nvidia. I will hold NVDA and see what develops... 
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs and only 2 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
There was an ugly chart today. Late day action was poor to say the least.
 

Internals were weak too and the indicators followed them down. The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators fell further to a Bearish -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The 10-dMA of the spread continued falling, a bearish sign.
 
The S&P 500 closed below its 50-dMA and indicators declined so, I trimmed stock holdings down to 50% in the portfolio. I didn’t move until very late in the day and I wasn’t able to post my moves before the close of trading.
 
My work suggests we could see a decline more than 10%, but the indicator that suggests at least a 10% decline isn’t always right (none are). The last time it warned, there was an 8.5% decline.
 
Regarding the recent stock market weakness, the following is from a YouTube video by Chris Ciovacco of Ciovacco Capital.  
 
From...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuoFJ4jvqP8
 
That could be, but I am taking the cautious view. “Additional consolidation” could be a problem. As of today’s close, the S&P 500 is only down 2.2% from its recent all-time high. Inflation, Economic weakness, high valuation, falling tech stocks – all have been blamed for the trading range the markets have been in. The S&P 500 is no higher now than it was in mid-November 2024. Could Trump’s antics be a cause of stock market weakness?
 
BOTTOM LINE
I am cautiously bearish, but still fully invested - 50% in stocks. If indicators continue down, I’ll make further reductions in stock holdings.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
 

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
 

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html

MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
 
 

...My current invested position is about 50% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                             
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.