PCE Price ... Chicago PMI ... Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis ...
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Federal employees do not deserve their jobs. Federal
employees do not deserve their paycheck, and these are jobs that can be fired
at will.” – Majorie Taylor Greene,(R) Congresswoman.
My cmt: Someone tell her that she is a federal employee.
“Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham who has accurately
predicted past financial crises and market tops said the U.S. stock market is
now in ‘super bubble’ territory. ‘I’ve always looked at it from the point of
view that the longer and the bigger and the higher it goes, the more exciting
and dangerous it will be, and this has moved up the rank of super bubbles.’” -
Jeremy
Grantham on the meltdown coming for U.S. stocks and where he’s putting his
money now
PCE PRICE (Yahoo Finance)
“The latest reading of the Federal Reserve's preferred
inflation gauge showed prices rose on a monthly basis but dropped year over
year, which should keep interest rates on hold when the central bank meets next
in March.”
From...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pce-inflation-gauge-matches-expectations-offering-relief-to-fed-134539849.html
CHICAGO PMI (Advisor Perspectives)
“The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (Chicago Business
Barometer) rose for a second straight month in February but remains
historically low. The index increased to 45.5 from 39.5 in January, surpassing
the 40.5 forecast. The index remained in contraction territory for a 15th
consecutive month.” Commentary and charts at...
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/02/28/chicago-pmi-contracts-for-15th-consecutive-month
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 1.6% to 5955.
-VIX fell about 7% to 19.63.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.203%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 12 gave Bear-signs
and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to
a Neutral -4 (4 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread continued falling, a bearish sign.
Bollinger Bands and RSI are both “oversold” yesterday so
today we got the “oversold bounce.” Was yesterday the bottom? It could have
been, but my guess is, not yet. Friday was a statistically significant up-day.
That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters. Statistics
show that a statistically-significant, up-day is followed by a down-day about
60% of the time, so we might guess that Monday will be a down-day. Further, back
and forth statistically significant up and down days are typical during
corrections. That may be what we’re seeing now.
For the most part, volumes increased and internals
declined (or didn’t improve enough) when the S&P 500 was near recent lows
this week. We want to see internals
improving at lows. Since we didn’t see that, I’ll stick with my assessment that
the bottom is not in; and the news didn’t get any better today. Increased tariff
threats, WWIII warnings (from Trump) and a Trump Zelensky blowup in the White House all
added to a wild news day.
I could always be wrong. Small corrections give small
signals and, so far, this is a small correction. As of Thursday, the S&P
500 was only down 4%.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only
about 30% invested in stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – somewhat
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
