“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
"Do Senate Democrats care more about opposing President Trump than protecting national security? That’s certainly what it looks like as they obstruct bill after bill to safeguard the homeland and defend against enemies. Their latest damaging act of resistance came Tuesday when they blocked the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) from advancing…The opinion polls suggest Democrats will gain seats in Congress this year, and maybe win both the Senate and House. But the more they show they care very little for U.S. security, the more voters may conclude that would be an historic mistake.” WSJ Editorial Board. Commentary at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/democrats-ndaa-chuck-schumer-national-defense-b243e58b
“Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits continued to trend lower. The latest Census Bureau data suggests that while builders remain cautious about future projects, construction activity itself regained momentum after last month's sharp pullback.” Story at…
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-housing-starts-building-permits-new-residenti
“Industrial production in the U.S. edged slightly higher in the month of June, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve on Friday. The Fed said industrial production crept up by 0.1 percent in June, matching the uptick seen in May.” Story at…
https://www.rttnews.com/3668117/u-s-industrial-production-inches-up-0-1-in-june-slightly-less-than-expected.aspx?type=ts
“With the second straight month of 10% jumps, consumer sentiment climbed to its highest reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the pump in recent weeks…Year-ahead inflation expectations ticked down from 4.6% in June to a still-elevated 4.2% this month. The current reading substantially exceeds the 3.4% seen in February before the Iran conflict began, along with all 2024 readings. Long-run inflation expectations held steady from last month at 3.3%, remaining a bit higher than the 2.8% to 3.2% range seen in 2024.” Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
-Friday the S&P 500 declined about 1% to 7458.
-VIX rose about 12% to 18.77.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury was down slightly to 4.551% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher… Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 10 gave Bear-signs and 11 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from +11 to +1 (1 more Bull indicator than Bear indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed down, a BEARISH sign.
I am neutral and somewhat cautious. My guess is that the Index will bounce higher from Friday’s low, but that is mostly guess – let’s watch the 50-dMA.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
