“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
"We keep hearing this drumbeat that 2026 is 1999 all over again," Cramer said Monday on CNBC's "Mad Money." (1) "But the difference between now and 1999 is that this market does not stop punishing the companies that disappointed … You are unsafe at any level."
The warning comes even as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq continue hitting record highs, powered largely by enthusiasm around AI, semiconductor companies and data center spending. But beneath those headline gains, many well-known companies outside the AI trade have struggled badly…As Cramer put it, today's market has created "some hated stocks and some loved stocks." Right now, he argued, "the hated are over hated and the loved are over loved." Story at…
'You are unsafe at any level': Jim Cramer says 2026 isn't 1999 — it's worse. Here's why he argues the market's so much more 'punishing' now
“… At some point in the next six years, I forecast a stock market decline exceeding 30% that lasts 12-24 months. I don’t see the set up nor the culprit. I just know that we have not seen a decline like that since 2007-2009 and the markets and economy will be due. Recession will likely accompany that bear market, but one does not have to.
I saw this chart on Twitter today. Cash allocations are at historically low levels. That is one ingredient for a bear market. However, this condition can last years before it matters. Margin debt has soared. That’s another ingredient of a bear market. Guess what? That can last years as well. There are other indicators to go along with these like Robert Shiller’s CAPE ratio and Warren Buffet’s total stock market value to GDP. Eventually, they will matter, but they are absolutely terrible timing tools.
The bull market remains old but alive and reasonably healthy. There is a scenario for a 6-11% correction this quarter. A July peak and an August or September bottom. All-time highs in Q4.” Paul Schatz, President Heritage Capital. From…
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/dont-let-long-term-warnings-cloud-the-next-few-quarters/
“In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting June 16-17 as chairman of the Federal Open Market Committee, participants saw outcomes where inflation could ease and allow lower rates, while others envisioned a scenario where price increases stay elevated and lead to hikes. During his post-meeting news conference, Warsh billed the debate as a “family fight” that ended with the committee unanimously voting to keep the Fed’s benchmark funds rate anchored in a range between 3.5%-3.75%, where it has been for all of 2026.” Story at…
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/08/fed-minutes-june-2026-.html
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.4% to 7575.
-VIX declined about 5% to 15.03.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.561% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
“…the market appears to be pricing Nvidia as though its best growth opportunities are behind it. This is not the first time such a rerating has occurred with Nvidia. In earlier instances when Nvidia's forward P/E contracted amid consolidation or shifting sentiment, subsequent evidence of accelerating revenue and profitability triggered multiple expansions. This pattern is consistent: Once operational results confirm that the company's AI-driven growth is continuing, investors eventually reengage, and the valuation rerates higher.,, Patient investors who recognize that Nvidia's recent price action reflects investor caution rather than a fundamental deterioration of its thesis can position themselves to benefit from meaningful share price appreciation as the chip giant continues to execute.” – Motley Fool at…
Nvidia stock has only gained 5% so far in 2026. History is crystal clear on where the stock is headed next
No change here: at the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 6 gave Bear-signs and 15 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained +9 (9 more Bull indicators than Bear indicators), a BULLISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued higher a BULLISH sign that smooths daily fluctuations.
I am bullish.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
Google has replaced Verizon in the Dow 30. It will take a while for me to update the momentum chart.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
