ADP Employment … Factory Orders … Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
CUT DOWN THE TREES (Irish Star)
“The Trump administration has removed 40 weeping willow trees that lined both sides of the embattled John F. Kennedy Performing Arts Center… "They symbolized the mourning of a nation for President Kennedy following his assassination in 1963…" Story at…
Bitter Trump razes 40 weeping willow trees outside Kennedy Center commemorating assassinated president
My cmt: The story implies that Trump cut the trees out of spite. According to Forbes; “The weeping willows on the upper terrace were removed in October 2025 because they were decaying, unstable, and posed a safety hazard. The trees were planted in shallow soil beds built directly over concrete decks, which restrict root growth and require the trees to be replaced periodically (roughly every 10 to 15 years). Prior to the removal, a storm had already knocked down one of the trees, and others were visibly dying.”
 
TRUMP CUT DOWN CHERRY TREES (Snopes)
“A rumor circulating in late August 2026 claimed crews cut down dozens of cherry trees to pave the way for U.S. President Donald Trump's plans to renovate a Washington, D.C., golf course.  As of this writing on Sept. 1, we've found no evidence to support the claim dozens of cherry trees had been removed as part of the project.” Story from Snopes Fact-check site at…
Did Trump cut down dozens of cherry trees for DC golf course renovations?
My cmt: I am not a Trump fan, but I get tired of the Democrat lies.
 
ADP EMPLOYMENT (PR Newswire)
“Private employers added 38,000 jobs in August. Private employers posted their slowest pace of job creation since January. Manufacturing, professional services, and information shed jobs. Education and health care, construction, and leisure and hospitality all showed solid hiring.” Press release at…
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-38-000-jobs-in-august-302867661.html
 
FACTORY ORDERS (Quartz.)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose 0.9% in July to $663.6 billion, rebounding after a 0.2% drop in June, the Census Bureau said on Wednesday.” Story at…
https://qz.com/us-factory-orders-july-2026-aircraft-090226
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.5% to 7667.
-VIX declined about 6% to 15.33.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined to 4.782% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 13 gave Bear-signs and 10 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -8 to -3 (3 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a NEUTRAL indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued down, a BEARISH sign.
 
There is now a very concerning indicator; markets are too calm. This indicator tracks standard deviation and it is usually accurate in calling for a top.  The only problem is that it does not make a timely call. The best we can say is that a top is likely within a month. The last time we saw this indicator warn was in October of 2025. The top occurred 2-1/2 weeks later and preceded a 5% decline.
 
Before that, this indicator warned of a top 3-days before the bottom of a 4% decline. Let’s hope that’s what we are seeing now – that the market is close to an end of its weakness.
 
I still wouldn’t be surprised to see the S&P 500 fall to its 50-dMA – about 1.2% below today’s close.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I’m neutral.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 

DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.