… Momentum Trading DOW Stocks & ETFs … Stock Market Analysis

 
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool, Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
 
“Far more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
 
“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
 
“There’s a lot of exuberance out there,” Dimon continued. “But it was in 1972, 1986, 2000, 2007. That doesn’t give me comfort.” – Jamie Dimon
 
DEMOCRATS WANT 13 JUSTICES (WSJ – Excerpt)
“The future of the Supreme Court is on the ballot in November, as Democrats keep showing, over and over. On Wednesday the House voted on a proposal to amend the Constitution to fix the Court at nine Justices, its size since 1869. Passing an amendment takes a two-thirds majority as a first step. This failed, 212-206, with all but a lone Democrat saying no…
…Rep. Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, said on the floor. “What’s going on here? Well, surprise, surprise, America, it’s another partisan power grab by MAGA.”
…The Democratic drive to pack the Court is about power, plain and simple. The Justices in today’s 6-3 majority are deciding cases based on the law as they see it. That includes landmark rulings against President Trump on tariffs, birthright citizenship, the Federal Reserve, and much more. Yet Mr. Raskin and his friends dislike the Court’s decisions on abortion, free political speech, the colorblind Constitution, and the separation of powers…
…Since Mr. Raskin poses as a defender of democracy, he might want to ruminate on what happens to a country when it turns its courts into a plaything of its politicians.” – Editorial Board, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/house-vote-supreme-court-nine-justices-democrats-jamie-raskin-9c47e2a1
 
QUICK MARKET SUMMARY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 declined about 0.5% to 7636.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.46.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.845% (compared to about this time prior market day).
 
MY TRADING POSITIONS
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
 
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs and 2 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
 

TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined from -5 to -15 (15 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations reversed lower, a BULLISH sign.
 
The biggest concern in the indicators is that there are only 2 Bull signs: (1)  the 100-dMA of issues advancing on the NYSE remains above 50% and (2) the size of up-moves have been greater than down moves.  
 
We have seen markets recover from this sort of low-bull number without much of a correction in the past, so it is not time to panic. However, it is time to get pay close attention.
 
Market action recently has been uncomfortable since it hasn’t advanced much since early June. On a positive note, the S&P 500 is only 2.1% below its 13 August all-time high of 7799.
 
Further, the 50-dMA is a good level of support and the Index is now only 0.4% above its 50-dMA.
 
I’ll be watching the 50-day and indicators.  If we lose the last 2 bull indicators, I’ll make changes to the stock portfolio. We’ll watch the 50-day too.
 
BOTTOM LINE
I remain neutral, but concerned.
 
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:

The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
 
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)

The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
 
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)-

My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it diverges from the Index.) 
 
                                                                         

My invested position is about 60% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs. 50% invested in stocks is a normal, conservative position for a retiree. (80% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
                                              
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.