“Never, never, never, believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The Statesman who yields to war fever . . . is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” - Winston Churchill.
“America is in a sour mood these days, so it’s not surprising that on the anniversary of the terrorist attacks that September morning 25 years ago we are being told of the country’s failures. We are lectured that America overreacted, squandered blood and treasure, betrayed its principles, and set the country on the path to national decline. If you flew in this week after 25 years on Mars, you might think Osama bin Laden had won. Don’t believe it. We were there that day, across the street from the Twin Towers, and we see a different legacy… Two counterterror principles established after 9/11 were especially important. The first was to take the war to the terrorists overseas rather than play defense here. The second was to hold states that harbored terrorists as culpable as the terrorists…
…By all means honor the firemen and police and others who gave their lives on 9/11. But honor the dead as well by recalling the horror of that day and resolving to do what is needed so it doesn’t happen again.” – The Editorial Board, WSJ. Opinion at…
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/9-11-25th-anniversary-twin-towers-terrorism-7fcb6674?mod=opinion_lead_pos1
“A hotter-than-expected inflation report has sharply raised the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in September, which would mark its first rate hike since 2023.
The Consumer Price Index rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in August, in line with July's reading but higher than the 3.3% economists were forecasting.” Story at…
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fed-rate-hike-september-likelihood-cpi/
From…
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
“Consumer sentiment receded less than 4 index points for the second consecutive month of decreases…Year-ahead expectations for both personal finances and business conditions plunged. With a resurgence in fuel prices and trade tensions, consumers anticipate greater pressures on their pocketbooks to come.” Report at…
https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
The Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 13.2% year-over-year.
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.9% to 7657.
-VIX declined about 11% to 15.84.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.971% (compared to about this time prior market day).
QLD – Added 5/28/2026
NVDA – Added 12/1/2025, 2/6/2026 & 8/3/2026
XLK – Added 6/5/2026
At the close today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 20 gave Bear-signs and 3 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will signal only at extremes.)
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved from -19 to -17 (17 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators), a very BEARISH indication. I consider +5 to -5 the neutral zone. The 10-dMA curve of the spread (purple on the chart above) that smooths daily fluctuations continued lower, a BEARISH sign.
(1) One of the Bullish signs suggests an oversold condition, because there have been only 7 up-days in the last month. Unfortunately, oversold conditions can remain in place for long periods. I’d need to see more positive signs before we think about a bottom.
(2) The size of up-moves has been greater than down-moves.
(3) The S&P 500 is outpacing Utilities (XLU). When investors are worried, they buy Utilities so if the Index outperforming XLU, it suggests investors are not worried.
(1) Market action recently has been uncomfortable since it hasn’t advanced much since early June. On a positive note, the S&P 500 is only 1.8% below its 13 August all-time high of 7799.
(2) The S&P 500 closed 0.6% above its 50-dMA so it avoided consecutive closes below it. Consecutive closes below the 50-day are a concern.
I remain neutral, but concerned.
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking follows:
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
The top ranked Stock receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the momentum-based analysis I provide here although I don’t trade as much as I used to. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in October 2022 and 2023.
