“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Tariffs proposed by U.S. President Donald
Trump are a "tax cut for Americans," White House Press
Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday at a tense press conference...”
Story at...
White
House tensions explode as Karoline Leavitt claims tariffs are a 'tax cut for
Americans'
My cmt: She’s dumber than Biden's Press Secretary.
CAPITAL HILL’S REPUBLICAN SYCOPHANT CONGRESS (WSJ –
Excerpt)
“‘I don’t mind what Trump does, because I trust Trump.’ Thus
spoke Sen. Lindsey Graham last week, cheerfully declaring the
unconditional surrender of not only his own judgment, his freedom of thought,
his relevance and his dignity, but—and this one actually matters—his role as a
leading member of one of the elected branches of the U.S. government... As the
president ventures further down a “diplomatic” track that punishes and
alienates for no good reason our closest neighbor and ally, that rewards the
tyranny of a murderous and implacable foe of America, that nods approvingly as
the dictator of that country carries out the rape of a free nation, that
casually slashes at the bonds of alliance that have served this country well
and enhanced its global power and standing for decades, my question is: When is
someone going to say something? By someone, I mean a member of the world’s
greatest deliberative body—and maybe its junior partner across Capitol Hill
too.” – Gerard Baker, Editor at Large, WSJ. Commentary at...
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/capitol-hills-republican-sycophant-caucus-trump-gop-congress-4e3056a5?mod=opinion_lead_pos6
My cmt: The WSJ is a right-wing paper.
NFIB BUSINESS OPTIMISM
“The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.1
points in February to 100.7. This is the fourth consecutive month above the
51-year average of 98 and is 4.4 points below its most recent peak of 105.1 in
December. The Uncertainty Index rose four points to 104 – the second highest
recorded reading...The net percent of owners expecting the economy to improve
fell ten points from January to a net 37% (seasonally adjusted).” Story at...
https://www.nfib.com/news-article/monthly_report/sbet/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 0.8% to 5572.
-VIX slipped about 3% to 27.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.282%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 18 gave Bear-signs
and 5were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of neutral
indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators that will
signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
As of today’s close, the S&P 500 was down 8.9% from
its all-time high. The S&P 500 closed 2.9% below its 200-day.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to
a Bearish -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread continues to move higher – that is a bullish sign, but
there has been no confirmation of this bullish trend so far.
We did note that volume was lower today than the volume yesterday
while the S&P 500 made a new low. That suggests some possible slowing of
the decline. We also see that unchanged
volume was very high. As I’ve often said, many believe that this indicator
suggests investor confusion at market turning points. Are markets turning back
up? Perhaps, the best we can say is that investors are confused. The
Buying-Pressure minus Selling Pressure indicator is still falling sharply so it
is not confirming reduced selling yet.
While volume did decline, but it was still about 20%
above the monthly average. Internals were worse today than yesterday – that’s
not a good sign. Still, we may be getting nearer to the end of this decline.
RSI and Bollinger Bands were both oversold so perhaps we’ll
see stocks bounce Wednesday.
BOTTOM LINE
No bottom yet. I am bearish with a very conservative
allocation of only about 30% invested in stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – extreme
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
INVESTORS ARE IN A BAD MOOD (Barron’s – 3/8/2025)
“A Friday rally can’t hide the fact that the stock market
is stuck in an ominous pattern—and it’s not clear what will shake it out... The
biggest problem is uncertain federal policy, which appears to be causing many
businesses to hold off on making investment decisions. President Donald Trump
imposed tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China before backtracking on some of the
penalties and then promising even more to come.
The word “uncertainty” came up 47 times this week in
the Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book, which gathers evidence
on economic conditions around the country—about three times as often as it was
mentioned in January... Some investors are rotating into the kinds of companies
that do well when times are tough. The market’s few winners this past week
included flight-to-safety stocks like discount chain Dollar General, a Barron’s stock pick, and Colgate Palmolive... Trump’s
policies have given a boost to markets outside the U.S., causing some on Wall
Street to quip that MAGA has been replaced by MEGA—Make Europe Great Again. Indexes like Germany’s DAX
have been on the upswing, and Ronald Temple, chief market
strategist at Lazard, believes that outperformance could continue as U.S.
stocks face tariff-related weakness.” Commentary at...
Investors
Are in a Bad Mood. This Time, They Might Be Right.
My cmt: The above was written before today’s debacle.
Today, we didn’t need anyone to tell us investors are in a bad mood.
RECESSION ISN’T IN THE CARDS YET (CNBC)
“Dubbing Trump an
‘agent of chaos and confusion,’ Schmieding [chief economist at Berenberg Bank]
said the president’s ‘zigzagging on tariffs shows that he has little idea of
the potential consequences of his tariff policies.’ Nonetheless, ‘U.S.
consumers have money to spend, [and] they probably will. The labor market in
the U.S. remains reasonably firm, and with energy prices coming down a bit and
probably some tax cuts and deregulation coming, I don’t think there’s an
imminent recession risk,’ according to Schmieding.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/10/trump-an-agent-of-chaos-and-confusion-economists-warn.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 2.7% to 5615.
-VIX jumped about 19% to 27.89.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.219%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 15 gave Bear-signs
and 9 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
3 weeks ago, at the S&P 500 all-time high, sentiment
was 96%-bulls (5-day average of %-Bulls (Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the
amounts invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim, long/short mutual funds).
Friday, my sentiment reading was 95%-bulls. These are very high readings and
the fact that they have hardly declined in the last 3-weeks suggests this
pullback has farther to go. Maybe after today’s close we’ll see more shorting
in the Rydex funds.
As of today’s close, the S&P 500 was down 8.2% from
its all-time high. Those who made bets last week that the 200-dMA would hold
were disappointed today. Monday the S&P 500 closed 2% below its 200-day.
Previously, I mentioned a Jeffrey Saut (former head of
trading for Raymond James) quote during another correction, “...we could be in
one of these “selling stampedes” that tend to last 17 – 25 sessions, with only
1.5 - to three-day pauses/throwback rallies, before they exhaust themselves on
the downside... but “Never on a Friday.”
I think we can safely say that we ARE in one of
those selling stampedes. The “Never on Friday” reference was that “...once the
markets get into one of these weekly downside skeins, they rarely bottom on a
Friday....they typically give participants over the weekend to brood about
their losses and then they show up the next Monday in “sell mode” leading to
Turning Tuesday.” So, is tomorrow likely to be a “Turning Tuesday?” No – today
(Monday) is only day-13. We are likely to see another week or two of selling.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to
a Bearish -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread reversed higher, but it looks like a fake out. Numbers are
improving, but some of that improvement is due to “oversold” indicators that
are giving buy-signals. Unfortunately,
in significant pullbacks, we must mostly ignore oversold-signals and use other
methods to call a bottom. In addition, my 50-Indicator Summary has not been
around long enough to gauge its usefulness in a bigger downturn.
BOTTOM LINE
No bottom yet. I am bearish with a very conservative
allocation of only about 30% invested in stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – extreme
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Extinguishing the beacon of liberty.” - Michael Ramirez,
Pulitzer Prize winner. Political commentary at...
https://michaelpramirez.com/index.html
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
HERITAGE CAPITAL BLOG EXCERPT (Heritage Capital)
“The S&P 500 is now down 6% on a closing basis and
the NASDAQ 100 is down 8%. The opportunity I just wrote about on Monday
evaporated quickly that day and we took action in both directions as I wasn’t
willing to let small losses turn into large ones on new positions.
The magnitude of this pullback is stretching what I
expected if this decline was to be the appetizer for the 7-9 week, 10%+
correction I saw coming in Q2 or Q3. More evidence is pointing to continued
downside after a bounce that would satisfy my downside target of 10%. The
building blocks are growing for a low, but price behaves like it needs to visit
the 5500-5600 range...In short, I absolutely do not believe
the 6% pullback is because of tariffs... Rather, as I have written, I think
this is a growth scare. Look no further than granddaddy retailer, Wal-Mart...”
- Paul Schatz, President, Heritage Capital. Commentary at...
https://investfortomorrow.com/blog/eggs-or-energy/
FED BEIGE BOOK (Federal Reserve)
“Overall economic activity rose slightly since
mid-January. Six Districts reported no change, four reported modest or moderate
growth, and two noted slight contractions. Consumer spending was lower on
balance, with reports of solid demand for essential goods mixed with increased
price sensitivity for discretionary items, particularly among lower-income
shoppers.” Report at...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/beigebook202502-summary.htm
PAYROLL REPORT (CNBC)
“Job growth was weaker than expected in February though
still stable despite President Donald
Trump’s efforts to slash the federal workforce. Nonfarm payrolls increased
by a seasonally adjusted 151,000 on the month, better than the downwardly revised
125,000 in January, but less than the 170,000 consensus... The unemployment
rate edged higher to 4.1%.” Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/07/jobs-report-february-2025.html
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Friday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 5770.
-VIX declined about 6% to 23.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.305%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs
and 5 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to
a Bearish -12 (12 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread continued falling, but the rate of fall has slowed. It’s
still bearish, but suggests a reversal may be in the works.
Volume was up a lot today. Some believe that this shows “conviction”
after the low. That’s always a hard call.
Usually, lows aren’t obvious and investors don’t jump in – rather,
volumes are low coming off a bottom, because most investors don’t believe a
bottom is in.
I think investors are looking at the 200-dMA. The S&P
500 bounced off the 200-day yesterday and moved up today. Buying today may turn
out to be a good call, but I’ll wait to see what happens Monday. I am in a “don’t
lose” mode vs. “buy-the-dip.”
While yesterday had some bottom signals, they weren’t as
strong as we might have liked.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only
about 30% invested in stock holdings. As for a bottom – I’ll follow the market
action Monday and see if we get any new information. I am not convinced yet,
but increasing stock positions some may be a good move.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals improved to HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – somewhat
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
JOBLESS CLAIMS (WSJ)
“Fewer Americans filed for initial jobless benefits last
week, reversing a spike in the previous week's data... The week through March 1
brought 221,000 initial jobless claims, compared with 242,000 a week earlier.”
Story at...
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-03-06-2025/card/jobless-claims-fell-last-week-federal-worker-claims-rose-in-february-UB57ownrqyCzIcYpMLnV
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Thursday the S&P 500 fell about 1.8% to 5739.
-VIX rose about 13% to 24.87.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.28%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs
and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators improved to
a Bearish -10 (10 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread continued falling, a bearish sign.
I’ll ignore the slight improvement in today’s indicator
spread. Two of the bullish indicators today (Bollinger Bands and RSI) are
signaling “oversold,” but today, they may not mean as much as they meant 2 days
ago. Then, we were due for a bounce. Now, we must recognize that oversold
conditions can last a long time and we might not see a bounce tomorrow.
The most surprising part of this ongoing decline has been
the Sentiment numbers. I measure Sentiment as a 5-day average of %-Bulls
(Bulls/{bulls+bears}) based on the amounts invested in selected Rydex/Guggenheim,
long/short mutual funds. This is a better measure than polling individual
investors, because it shows where individual investors are placing their money.
Currently, 96% of the investors are betting long (96%-bulls). That’s an extreme
number and it has been extreme for some time.
I suspect when the numbers come in tonight, it will fall – sooner or
later, investors will wake up and smell what the bear is doing in the woods.
For a bottom, I expect the S&P 500 to drop into the
close. Today there was some recovery after 3pm or so. My statistical analysis also
suggests that a bottom will come on a much bigger down-day. That sounds scary
since the Index was down about 1.8% today. A bottom needs to come on real panic
to create the washout.
So far, the drop from the all-time high is 6.2%. My
numbers suggested a drop of 10% or greater during this correction due to poor
breadth that we noted at the all-time high 2-weeks ago.
The S&P 500 closed about 0.1% above its 200-dMA,
close enough to be “on” the 200-dMA, but I
generally look for a retest of the low to call a bottom.
Today might be considered as a retest of the Tuesday low;
the close was about three-quarter-percent lower than the prior low. Volume was
lower and the internals suggest that the S&P 500 may have made a bottom
today. I’ll look for a confirmation tomorrow, but I doubt that I’ll be a buyer
before Monday, even if tomorrow is an up-day. Tomorrow’s action could be just a
fake out at the 200-day. A lot of investors may buy just because the index hit
the 200-dMA.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only
about 30% invested in stock holdings. As for a bottom – we’ll see.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – somewhat
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
WARREN BUFFET/BUBBLE INDICATOR (Fortune)
“So, is the U.S. stock market in bubble territory?
High-profile investors like Warren Buffett seem to think so: Berkshire
Hathaway’s cash as a percentage of assets hit a record high of 27% last quarter, and Buffett has
even offloaded all of Berkshire’s market-tracking ETFs... The
current value of the bubble detector— [is] an all-time high of 0.3655... Thanks
to a “healthy” dose of helicopter money from the Fed during
the pandemic, as well as (albeit exciting) AI-related breakthroughs in the U.S. tech industry, stocks have
ripped higher for the last five years, outpacing growth in personal income per
capita.” Story at...
Warren
Buffett acts like the U.S. stock market is in bubble territory. He might be
onto something
FURY IN UK (Raw Story)
“Vice President J.D. Vance has caused a new international
incident by lobbing insults at the United States' top ally. The Murdoch-owned U.K. tabloid The Sun reports that
Britons of all political stripes are denouncing Vance after he described their
nation as "some random country that hasn't fought a war in 30 or 40
years" during an appearance on Fox News Monday night. Of course, British
troops fought side by side with American soldiers in both Iraq and Afghanistan,
and The Sun notes that 636 U.K. soldiers died fighting in both wars.” Story
at...
Fury
in UK as JD Vance lobs new insult at America's top ally
My cmt: What an incompetent. His only talent seems to be
that he is a Trump toady.
ADP EMPLOYMENT (ADP via prnewswire)
“Private sector employment increased by 77,000 jobs in
February and annual pay was up 4.7 percent year-over-year, according to the
February ADP® National
Employment Report™... ‘Policy uncertainty and a slowdown in consumer
spending might have led to layoffs or a slowdown in hiring last month,"
said Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP. "Our data, combined with
other recent indicators, suggests a hiring hesitancy among employers as they
assess the economic climate ahead.’" Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-77-000-jobs-in-february-annual-pay-was-up-4-7-302393083.html
My cmt: This was a very poor number.
DURABLE GOODS (Census.gov)
“New orders for manufactured durable goods in January, up
following two consecutive monthly decreases, increased $8.7 billion or 3.1% to
$286.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced. This followed a 1.8% December
decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders were virtually unchanged.
Excluding defense, new orders increased 3.5%.” Report at...
https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/adv/current/index.html
ISM NON-MANUFACTURING (ISM via prnewswire)
“Economic activity in the services
sector expanded for the seventh consecutive month in January, say the
nation's purchasing and supply executives... The Services PMI® registered
52.8 percent, indicating expansion for the 53rd time in 56 months since
recovery from the coronavirus pandemic-induced recession began
in June 2020.... ‘January was the second month in a row with all four
subindexes that directly factor into the Services PMI® — Business
Activity, New Orders, Employment and Supplier Deliveries — in expansion
territory.’” Press release at...
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/services-pmi-at-52-8-january-2025-services-ism-report-on-business-302367882.html
FACTORY ORDERS (rttnews)
“New orders for U.S. manufactured goods surged by
slightly more than expected in the month of January, according to a report
released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. The report said factory
orders shot up by 1.7 percent in January after falling by a revised 0.6 percent
in December.” Story at...
https://www.rttnews.com/3518967/u-s-factory-orders-jump-slightly-more-than-expected-in-january.aspx
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Wednesday the S&P 500 rose about 1.1% to 5843.
-VIX dropped about 7% to 21.93.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.313%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs
and 4 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
We got a bounce, as we expected, due to the oversold
conditions in Bollinger Bands and RSI.
Or was it just the news? The news seems to be driving market direction,
though it is not clear that this pullback is solely the result of Trump
Tariffs. The high for the S&P 500
was about 2-weeks ago, while the Technology Sector Select Fund (KLK-ETF) peaked
about 3 weeks ago. Tariffs were a concern then, but not the pressing issue they
are now. Would an end to tariffs return the markets to new highs? Curiously,
the buying-pressure/selling-pressure indicator peaked back in October, before
Trump was elected, so it is always possible that there is more to this pullback
than meets the eye.
Regardless, all I can do is read the indicator, tea-leaves
and hope to call a bottom, near the bottom.
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to a
Bearish -13 (13 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread continued falling, a bearish sign.
The S&P 500 closed about 2% above its 200-dMA. So
far, the drop from the all-time high is 4.5%. My numbers suggested a drop of
10% or greater during this correction due to poor breadth that we noted at the
all-time high 2-weeks ago.
Wednesday, unchanged volume was very high. As I’ve often
said, many believe that this indicator suggests investor confusion at market turning
points. Are markets turning back up? Perhaps, the best we can say is that
investors are confused. We don’t expect this bounce to last very long – 1 to 3
days if it follows the script. “High-unchanged-volume” is not one of my
indicators because it is often wrong.
I doubt that we’ve seen a bottom – we’ll see.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only
about 30% invested in stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS
(NYSE DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – somewhat
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“President
Trump has ordered a pause on U.S. aid going to Ukraine in its war
against Russia, a consequential move as he clashes with Ukrainian
President Volodymyr
Zelensky about the path to ending the conflict.” Story at...
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5174156-trump-pauses-aid-to-ukraine-amid-clash-with-zelensky/
My cmt: I can only think of one word – “Disgraceful.”
“Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) scolded
President Donald Trump over his Oval Office tirade against Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky on Friday, calling it ‘a bad day for America’s foreign policy’...
‘Ukraine wants independence, free markets and rule of law. It wants to be part
of the West. Russia hates us and our Western values. We should be clear that we
stand for freedom...’” Story at...
GOP
Congressman Scolds Trump Over Disastrous Zelensky Meeting: ‘A Bad Day’
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Tuesday the S&P 500 fell about 1.2% to 5778.
-VIX rose about 3% to 23.37.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.242%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 16 gave Bear-signs
and 7 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators remained a
Bearish -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread continued falling, a bearish sign.
The S&P 500 closed about 1% above its 200-dMA. So
far, the drop from the all-time high is 5.6%. My numbers suggested a drop of
10% or greater during this correction due to poor breadth that we noted at the
all-time high 2-weeks ago.
Bollinger Bands and RSI are both “oversold” so I’d expect
that Wednesday will finally give us a bounce. There have only been 3 up-days in
the last 2-weeks on the S&P 500 – we’re overdue. Based on indicators I still suspect that
markets have farther to fall. I’m still expecting a drop of at least 10%, but of
course, there are no guarantees.
Tuesday was another statistically significant down-day.
That just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near
Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days
occur at bottoms. Today could be a bottom, there were 2 Bottom Indicators, RSI
and Bollinger Bands. My guess is that it will be a bounce but in the 3-day
bounce zone.
Repeating yesterday’s comment: As noted by Jeffrey Saut
during another correction, “...we could be in one of these “selling stampedes”
that tend to last 17 – 25 sessions, with only 1.5- to three-day
pauses/throwback rallies, before they exhaust themselves on the downside... it [is]
too soon to tell yet if this is such a stampede, but “Never on a Friday.” The
reference was that once the markets get into one of these weekly downside
skeins, they rarely bottom on a Friday. Nope, they typically give participants
over the weekend to brood about their losses and then they show up the next
Monday in “sell mode” leading to Turning Tuesday.”
Volumes on down-days increased again Tuesday as
additional fear is creeping into the markets – I don’t see a durable bottom
yet, although, one suspects that if Trump reversed his Tariff stance, we might
see a significant bounce.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only
about 30% invested in stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals remained SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – somewhat
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
“Trade what you see; not what you think.” – The Old Fool,
Richard McCranie, trader extraordinaire.
“Far
more money has been lost by investors in preparing for corrections, or anticipating
corrections, than has been lost in the corrections themselves.” - Peter
Lynch, former manager of Fidelity’s Magellan® fund.
“Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) scolded
President Donald Trump over his Oval Office tirade against Ukrainian President Volodymyr
Zelensky on Friday, calling it ‘a bad day for America’s foreign policy’...
‘Ukraine wants independence, free markets and rule of law. It wants to be part
of the West. Russia hates us and our Western values. We should be clear that we
stand for freedom...’” Story at...
GOP
Congressman Scolds Trump Over Disastrous Zelensky Meeting: ‘A Bad Day’
"The frontline defense of the UK starts in
Ukraine." - John Healey, Britain's Defense Secretary
Speaking of Putin, Trump said:
"I think he'll keep his word. I've spoken to him,
I've known him for a long time now, you know, we had we had to go through the
Russian hoax together –– that was not a good thing. It's not fair, that was a
rigged deal and had nothing to do with Russia. It was a rigged deal inside the
country and they had to put up with that too. They put up with a lot." –
Donald Trump.
My cmt: You had to go through the Russian hoax together???
What the Hell does that mean? As for keeping his word...
“In 1994, Ukraine agreed to transfer [nuclear] weapons to
Russia for dismantlement and became a party to the Treaty on the
Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, in exchange for economic compensation
and assurances from Russia, the United
States and United Kingdom to respect the Ukrainian
independence and sovereignty in the existing borders. Years later, Russia,
one of the parties to the agreement, invaded Ukraine.” - From Wikipedia at...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#:~:text=In%201994%2C%20Ukraine%20agreed%20to,independence%20and%20sovereignty%20in%20the
“President Donald Trump has taken a decisive step in his
administration's ongoing efforts to curb federal spending by ordering
a 30-day freeze on 4.6 million government-issued credit cards. This
initiative is a key component of a larger strategy aimed at ensuring that
government spending is both transparent and accountable to the American public.” Story
at...
President
Trump freezes 4.6 million credit cards for 30 days
My cmt: He is decisively wasting money. Credit cards save
money by reducing paperwork. It is easy to catch employee misuse of the cards.
TARIFFS ARE A TAX ON GOODS (CNN)
“Tariffs are actually — we’ve had a lot of experience
with them — they’re an act of war, to some degree,” Buffett said in an
interview with CBS that aired on Sunday. The Berkshire Hathaway CEO and
billionaire investor said tariffs over time serve as a tax on goods and could
raise prices for consumers. “The Tooth Fairy doesn’t pay ‘em!” Buffett said
with a laugh.” – Story at...
https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/03/business/warren-buffett-tariffs-trump/index.html
TREASURY SAYS TARIFFS WON’T CAUSE INFLATION (CNBC)
“Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that
President Donald Trump’s proposed
tariffs are unlikely to raise inflation...” – Story at...
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/02/scott-bessent-says-trump-tariffs-wont-cause-inflation-to-increase.html
My cmt: Who you gonna’ call? A Trump crony or the Oracle
of Omaha.
ISM MANUFACTURING (ISM)
“U.S. manufacturing activity expanded marginally for the
second month in a row in February after 26 consecutive months of contraction.
Demand weakened, while output stabilized and inputs, for the first time in
several months, contributed to PMI® growth.” Report st...
https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/february/
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Reuters)
“U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell in January,
pulled down by a decline in outlays on multi-family homebuilding. The Commerce
Department's Census Bureau said on Monday that construction spending dropped
0.2% after an unrevised 0.5% increase in December.”Story at...
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-construction-spending-unexpectedly-declines-january-2025-03-03/
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS AS OF 1PM FRIDAY
-Monday the S&P 500 fell about 1.8% to 5850.
-VIX rose about 16% to 22.78.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury declined (compared to
about this time, prior trading day) to 4.159%.
MY TRADING POSITIONS:
None
CURRENT SUMMARY OF APPROXIMATELY 50 INDICATORS:
Today, of the 50-Indicators I track, 17 gave Bear-signs
and 8 were Bullish. The rest are neutral. (It is normal to have a lot of
neutral indicators since many of the indicators are top or bottom indicators
that will signal only at extremes.)
TODAY’S COMMENT
The daily, bull-bear spread of 50-indicators declined to
a Bearish -9 (9 more Bear indicators than Bull indicators). The
10-dMA of the spread continued falling, a bearish sign.
The Short Term, Fosback Hi/Lo Logic Index turned bearish
today. That’s an indicator that signals
rarely. It gave a bearish signal near the top of the 2022, 25% correction. It
also signaled more recently, after the bottom of a small, 4% decline in
September of 2024, so we’re left wondering what this time will bring. It has been reliable in the past since it
called the top of the Coronavirus bear market to the day.
My VIX indicator has been "sell" for a week. That indicator
is one of the more reliable signals.
So far, the Drop from the all-time high is only 4.4%.
Bollinger Bands are “oversold.” That’s the only bottom
indicator I have now, but it doesn’t mean much. Oversold conditions can last a
long time.
Monday was a statistically significant down-day. That
just means that the price-volume move exceeded my statistical parameters.
Statistics show that a statistically-significant, down-day is followed by an up-day
about 60% of the time. Bottoms almost always occur on/or near
Statistically-significant, down-days, but not all statistically-significant, down-days
occur at bottoms. Today could be a short-term bottom, but there was only one
Bottom Indicator, not enough to send a strong, bottom-signal.
The S&P 500 is now 2.2% above its 200-dMA. That will be an important test for markets.
As noted by Jeffrey Saut during another correction, “...we
could be in one of these “selling stampedes” that tend to last 17 – 25 sessions,
with only 1.5- to three-day pauses/throwback rallies, before they exhaust
themselves on the downside... it [is] too soon to tell yet if this is such a
stampede, but “Never on a Friday.” The reference was that once the markets get
into one of these weekly downside skeins, they rarely bottom on a Friday. Nope,
they typically give participants over the weekend to brood about their losses
and then they show up the next Monday in “sell mode” leading to Turning
Tuesday.” Will tomorrow be a “turning Tuesday? I doubt it.
Volumes increased again Monday as additional fear came
into the markets – I don’t see a bottom yet, although, one suspects that if
Trump reversed his Tariff stance, we might see a significant bounce.
BOTTOM LINE
I am bearish with a very conservative allocation of only
about 30% invested in stock holdings.
ETF - MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily) ETF ranking
follows:
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
DOW STOCKS - TODAY’S MOMENTUM RANKING
OF THE DOW 30 STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked Stock receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading Stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
My basket of Market Internals declined to SELL. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.)
...My current invested
position is about 30% stocks, including stock mutual funds and ETFs – somewhat
bearish. (I’ll need to recalculate the %.) 50% invested in stocks is a normal
position. (75% is my max stock allocation when I am confident that markets will
continue higher; 30% in stocks is my Bear market position.)
I trade about 15-20% of the total portfolio using the
momentum-based analysis I provide here. When I see bullish signs, I add a lot more
stocks to the portfolio, usually by using an S&P 500 ETF as I did back in
October 2022 and 2023.
TODAY’S COMMENT
My basket of Market Internals remained HOLD. (My basket of Market
Internals is a decent trend-following analysis that is most useful when it
diverges from the Index.) 
