The
S&P 500 was up 0.23% Monday after a big day Friday. Volume today was only 68% of the volume over
the average for the past month. Volume
Friday for that big 3%+ up day was only 61% of the 20-dMA. Moving up on light volume is not a good
indicator of where we are headed. In
other words, we have not learned much in spite of the good % move upward.
From
London’s “The Telegraph”
The London Telegraph reported that we may be headed for a bigger
crash than the one that occurred when Lehman Brothers failed. That is based on Credit default swap spreads.
A couple of quotes from senior bank officials:
"The problem is a shortage of liquidity – that is what is
causing the problems with the banks. It feels exactly as it felt in 2008,"
"I think we are heading for a market shock in September or
October that will match anything we have ever seen before,"
Essentially, the insurance on the debt of the banks has hit levels higher than they were during the US Financial crash.
The
Conference Board Consumer
Confidence Index®, which had improved slightly in July, fell
in August. The Index now stands at 44, down from 59.2 in July.
Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center said "Consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in August, as consumers grew significantly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. The index is now at its lowest level in more than two years.”
The
NTSM analysis is HOLD as of Monday’s close.
I sold on the 27 July sell signal at S&P 500 1301 and I am
defensively positioned with only a small amount of my portfolio invested in
stocks. (Zero stocks in the 401k.) I am 75% short in the trading portfolio (and
feeling nervous as we have advanced for 2-days).
(See
the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right side of this
page).
