The
Department of Labor reported “In the week ending August 6, the advance figure
for seasonally adjusted initial claims
was 395,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previous week's revised figure of
402,000. The 4-week moving average was 405,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the
previous week's revised average of 408,250.”
Any
downward movement is good news, but the change is less than 1% of the 4-week
moving average. If the economy was
picking up significantly, I doubt that the Fed would have promised zero interest
rates for the next 2-years as they did yesterday in the Fed statement. Mortgage rates are hitting new lows and that
is a testament to the bond market’s fear of another recession. As people buy bonds the interest rates drop.
I
said yesterday that I expected more bounce and I think it will continue a
little longer. This is normal in
corrections and bear markets.
The
NTSM analysis indicates Hold today so we remain out of the market per our last
Sell signal.
I sold on the 27 July sell signal and I am defensively
positioned with only a small amount of my portfolio invested in stocks. (Zero
stocks in the 401k.)
