NOT EVERYONE AGREES ABOUT
A CRASH (Nenner and Worth)
BREAKOUT from Yahoo
Finance: “Charles
Nenner, of the Charles Nenner Research Center (http://charlesnenner.com/), is looking to start
getting long again this week. Focused on cycles and momentum Nenner sees a
cyclical low coming in the next few days. He's a buyer anywhere from 1,280 to
1,230 on the S&P 500 but cautions those who are looking for a chance to buy
and hold profitably."
"People looking for major moves are going to be
disappointed," he says. Timing and trading are key as he thinks stocks are
going to be locked into a 5-10% range for an extended period.” Full story at…
NOTE: Mr. Nenner is predicting the low of 1278 will hold and be a successful test of the low. I have mentioned in several blogs that 1278 is the number to watch or a number in that general area.
CARTER WORTH ON CNBC
Carter Worth, chief market
technician and a managing director at Oppenheimer & Co., said yesterday on
CNBC that the VIX would not rise to match old highs because it was too soon for
it to peak in the 35-40 range, at least from a technical perspective. Since a peak high in the VIX would correspond
to an extreme bear market, this suggests that the current downtrend is just a
correction and not a return to previous lows, based on his technical analysis
of VIX. I am not a complete believer in
“charting”, I usually compare it to Professor Trelawney’s abilities in divining
the future; but even she was right twice, per to JK Rowling.
MARKET
Tuesday, today, the S&P
500 was UP 1/2% to 1320. The VIX fell 3% to
19.72.
NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained
HOLD today, Tuesday.
To answer the blog title:
Yes, it is possible this correction could end soon, but predicting the future
is not my game. It is certainly not a
done deal that the market is going to tank down. We will have to wait until the market retests
the 1278 area. A note: Sentiment seems
oddly high (bullish) now. We’re 3-months
into this correction and 5-day Sentiment was 53%-bullish as of yesterday’s close. Sentiment is a counter indicator. Bullish sentiment is actually bearish for the
market. Only time will tell…
MY INVESTED POSITION
I remain out of the market…
I reduced my stock holdings
to 30% (0% in stock in the 401k) at S&P 1358 after the SELL signal on 9 May
2012. (See the page “How to Use the NTSM System” – the link is on the right
side of this page). I cut my stock position
to 15% on 17 May in order to maintain a 10% gain in a trading/longer-term
position I had in the QQQ.
