Chicago PMI drops into negative territory in Sept (MARKETWATCH)
“Overall, this report follows the souring tone in other manufacturing sector indicators, which are all consistently pointing to intensifying headwinds facing this once buoyant sector,” said Millan Mulraine, economist at TD Securities…After hitting 64.0 in February, the Chicago PMI has lost momentum over the next seven months…“There are no encouraging signs in this report,” Simons said in a note to clients.” Full story at http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-drops-into-negative-territory-in-sept-2012-09-28
“Spanish bank tests offset weak economic data”
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)“…the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for September, a key gauge of manufacturing activity, came in far below expectations and showed a contracting economy for the first time since 2009… The report was yet another signal of ongoing weakness in the U.S. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for September also came in below expectations.” Full story at…
http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/28/investing/stocks-markets/index.html?iid=HP_LN
The article included some
good news regarding stress tests on Spanish banks. That news is irrelevant, though. In the end, US stocks respond to
earnings. Earnings reflect the economy. News regarding the US economy doesn’t look
good.
WSJ – TROUBLE AHEAD
“Data Suggest Trouble
Ahead (Wall Street Journal)The U.S. economy remains shaky, with threats looming at home and abroad, manufacturers mired in a slump and overall growth tepid.” Full story at…
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390443916104578022081483101410.html
I have been posting
excerpts from John Hussman’s weekly commentary (Hussman Funds at http://www.hussmanfunds.com/) for many months.
(John Hussman has kept his fund positioned for a significant downturn in
the stock market for nearly a year.) That’s
why I included Hussman’s latest downbeat commentary as a “long-term” view of
the market in my blog. He has said that
his data analysis suggests a market downturn in 2-weeks to 18-months. It’s looking like Hussman’s concerns may soon
become the “near-term” view.
MARKET
RECAP
Friday the S&P 500
finished DOWN 1/2% to 1441 (rounded).
VIX rose 6% to 15.69.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis slipped to HOLD Friday. Given today’s PMI it will be interesting to see how the market acts next week.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352.
I currently have a 50%
stock allocation overall. For my age,
that is what many advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I
am normally much more aggressive. I have
less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.
