Thursday, September 20, 2012

Unemployment Unchanged; Global Economy Slowing

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — “Slighter fewer Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, but there appeared to be no improvement in hiring trends across the nation.”  Full story at...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-show-little-improvement-2012-09-20


FRANKFURT (MarketWatch) — Fears of a rapidly slowing global economy trumped bullish enthusiasm over monetary stimulus on Thursday, after data from China’s manufacturing sector and the euro zone signaled a further contraction in business activity. …“Another night goes by and so it seems we have another slide in the fortunes of major global economies,” wrote Andrew Wilkinson, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak & Co. in New York, in a note to clients.”  Full story at...
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-euro-zone-pmi-data-highlight-global-fears-2012-09-20


I can’t remember a time when the markets have climbed a bigger "wall of worry." The S&P 500 is up 14% since 1 June 2012.

MARKET RECAP                                                                               
Thursday the S&P 500 finished DOWN 0.05% to 1460 (rounded).  VIX rose 1.4% to 14.07.

NTSM
The NTSM analysis remained BUY Thursday.

I’m short on time today so maybe I’ll check those internals tomorrow.  I’m still considering adding to my stock positions, but even with an NTMS BUY call, I want to see good market internals and maybe even some chart confirmation before I buy more stocks.

MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6 July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500 1352. 

I currently have a 50% stock allocation overall.  For my age, that is what most advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I am normally much more aggressive.  I have less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.