Friday, September 21, 2012

Crisis of the National Debt; but when?

“What one does see, again and again, in the history of financial crises is that when an accident is waiting to happen, it eventually does. When countries become too deeply indebted, they are headed for trouble. When debt-fueled asset price explosions seem too good to be true, they probably are. But the exact timing can be very difficult to guess, and a crisis that seems imminent can sometimes take years to ignite."
– From This Time Is Different, by Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff

EXCERPT from SEEKING ALPHA – THE TROUBLE WITH PRINTING MONEY by
CHRIS MARTENSON
Chris Martenson points out that QE3 is printing “…more money out of thin air”...

…it's not possible for you, personally, to forever borrow more than you earn without someday getting into financial difficulty, it is not possible for two or ten or 310 million of you to do so. The math does not change simply because a nation is involved instead of an individual.

the Fed is effectively creating the exact same purchasing power as nearly 10 million US households, or 25 million people…And nobody had to do anything except push a key on a computer a couple of times.  While the Fed can wrap this magic act in all sorts of covering language about dual mandates, maximum employment, and price stability, the simple fact remains that money printed out of thin air cannot, has not, and will not ever lead to prosperity. How could it? It arises without any effort at all, no work performed, no goods transformed or lives improved, no land planted and tended well, no services rendered, and no capital formed. It is just conjured into existence.

If it could work, then we should just print every household up a nice $1,000,000 check each year and let everybody stay home, take vacations, and drive nice cars. It's just an absurd notion, and this is why you should keep a journal - you live in absurd times.

Conclusion
How does all this end? Like it has every other time in history, with a final destruction of the currencies involved.”  Full story at…
http://seekingalpha.com/article/876071-the-trouble-with-printing-money

My comment:
I don’t know how or when the end point is either; but I think we’ll see dislocation in the stock markets if there isn’t a concerted effort to deal with the problem within the next several years. 

MARKET RECAP                                                                               
Friday the S&P 500 finished UNCHANGED at 1460 (rounded).  VIX fell 0.64% to 13.98.

NTSM
The NTSM analysis switched from Buy to HOLD Friday.

MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6 July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500 1352. 

I currently have a 50% stock allocation overall.  For my age, that is what most advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I am normally much more aggressive.  I have less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.