The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary October reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment came in at 83.1, up from 78.3 the month before, and the highest since September 2007, the survey showed on Friday.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/12/us-usa-economy-sentiment-idUSBRE89B0U320121012
That’s an interesting
number. With so many issues facing
consumers, it’s surprising to me too.
“Market Timing Will Cost
You Big Time Says Dalbar’s Harvey”
(from YAHOO, BREAKOUT)“…’We've looked at the effects of market timing for the last 20 years and on average these days (the cost to investors) is around 4 percentage points’…In fact, his research shows that during particularly volatile periods such as 2011, the average hit to a market timer's performance nearly doubled to 7%...” Full story at…
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/research-shows-market-timing-cost-big-time-130824983.html
So while the average
person who tried to time the market in 2011 under-performed the S&P 500 by
7%, the NTSM system outperformed by 12% - a swing of 19%. That’s the benefit of an analytical system
that takes emotion out of the picture.
MARKET
RECAP
Friday the S&P 500 was
DOWN 1/3% at 1433 (rounded) and VIX rose about 3-1/2% to 16.14.
The S&P 500 is still
only about 1% below the lower trend line.
For me, that is not enough to say the trend is now down.
At the top of 1466 on 14
September, the S&P 500 was about 9% above its 200-day moving average. Corrections often start when the S&P gets
in the range of 10-20% above the 200-dMA, so a correction now would not be a
surprise, but it is also far from certain.
The NTSM numbers are still in neutral territory.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Friday.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352.
I currently have a 50%
stock allocation overall. For my age,
that is what many advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I
am normally much more aggressive. I have
less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.
