BARRONS (3 Oct 2012)
“The Stock Market's Fuel Is
Running LowThe Standard & Poor's 500 index looks a lot like it did in late August with fading momentum and a short-term drift.
The difference between then and now is that central banks have already unleashed their stimulus plans. For now, the trend from June remains up, but its gas tank is just about empty…Based on the way the rally from June unfolded, it will take big news to reignite its engines. The internals of the market, from momentum to price structure to underformance of small stocks, does not bode well.” Full story at…
http://online.barrons.com/article/getting_technical.html
My indicators are all
neutral and my crystal ball is quite foggy – there isn’t anything in the NTSM
system that predicts the future – so I’ll have to wait and see.
THANKS A LOT FED
“…the Federal Reserve now
holds $2 trillion more on its balance sheet than it did three years ago. If it
ever has to disgorge this debt, even over time, the sale would crowd out 20% of
U.S. gross private domestic investment for 5 years running. These problems are
more than a simple political issue of “doing the right thing.” While central
banks have successfully created an environment of blissful ignorance of deeper
economic realities, they have also encouraged policymakers to waste time that
should not have been wasted. – 1 October
2012 Weekly Market Comment, John Hussman, PhD.
Full commentary at... http://www.hussmanfunds.com/
MARKET
RECAP
Thursday the S&P 500
finished UP 0.72% to 1461 (rounded). VIX
fell about 6% to 14.55.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Thursday in a solidly neutral position.
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352.
I currently have a 50%
stock allocation overall. For my age,
that is what many advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I
am normally much more aggressive. I have
less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.
