The stock market rally is over
“U.S. stock market has delivered quite the performance this year, thanks in large part to stimulus efforts by the world's central banks…But experts believe the robust gains are now remnants of the past. In fact, according to an exclusive CNNMoney survey of 37 investment strategists and money managers, the S&P 500 will finish 2012 at 1,440, up a healthy 15% for the year but in the exact same spot where it started the fourth quarter.”
http://money.cnn.com/2012/10/07/investing/stock-market-outlook/index.html?iid=HP_LN
As I have suggested before,
when everyone thinks the stock market will move one way, it usually goes the
other way. So if everyone says it’s
going down; it’s probably going up.
Still, as the article noted,
there are many headwinds: election, fiscal cliff, Europe, just to name a few.
MARKET
RECAP
Tuesday the S&P 500 was
about DOWN 1% to 1441(rounded) and VIX rose about
8% to 16.3 a little before the close.
The S&P 500 is now on
its lower trend line. We’ll have to see
if it drops lower. If it does, say
several percent lower, there should be some significant selling.
NTSM
The
NTSM analysis remained HOLD Tuesday although our best indicator (VIX) is
drifting toward the sell end of neutral.
(It
would take more than VIX alone to send a sell signal.)
MY INVESTED POSITION
Based on the BUY signal, 6
July, I moved back into the market on 9 July (after the weekend) at S&P 500
1352.
I currently have a 50%
stock allocation overall. For my age,
that is what many advisors recommend as a fully invested position, however, I
am normally much more aggressive. I have
less invested in stocks now because there’s a lot of risk.
