http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-08/february-multiple-jobholders-rose-record-full-timers-dropped-part-timers-increased
Mike Shedlock at Global Economic Trend Advisors parsed
the numbers to find the “good news” will be quite short lived. (Forget the silver lining – this looks more
like a storm cloud.)
“THE ECONOMY SHED 276,000 FULL-TIME JOBS” (Global Economic
Trend Advisors)
Friday's jobs numbers were reported as great and even had some on CNBC discussing an end to Fed easing; but the numbers weren't great - they were misunderstood. Mish Shedlock, at Global Economic Advisors, explained the numbers pretty well:
"According to the household survey (on which the unemployment rate is based) the economy added a healthy 170,000 jobs. However, a whopping 446,000 of those jobs were part-time jobs. Simply put, the economy shed 276,000 full-time jobs." Mish further noted that "A Gallup Survey yesterday (Thursday) on Jobs show the percentage of workers working part time but wanting full-time work was 10.1% in February, an increase from 9.6% in January, and the highest rate measured since January 2012....and...fewer Americans are working full-time for an employer than were doing so a year ago, and more Americans are working part time. Although part-time work is clearly better than no work at all, these are not the types of good jobs that millions of Americans are still searching for."
Mish wrote simply, "Obamacare is in play. Recall that under Obamacare, the definition of full-time employment is 30 hours. The BLS cutoff is 34 hours. At 30 hours, companies have to pay medical benefits so they have been slashing the number of hours people work. This reduced the number of hours people worked and provided an incentive for many to take on an extra job."
(My cmt: Furthermore, companies that cut hours for their employees had to hire more part time employees to fill the gaps created when they cut the hours of their existing employees.)
Mish concluded: "The reported 236,000 surge in the establishment survey is not real. It will be revised away."
Full story at...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/spoiling-great-employment-news.html
Friday's jobs numbers were reported as great and even had some on CNBC discussing an end to Fed easing; but the numbers weren't great - they were misunderstood. Mish Shedlock, at Global Economic Advisors, explained the numbers pretty well:
"According to the household survey (on which the unemployment rate is based) the economy added a healthy 170,000 jobs. However, a whopping 446,000 of those jobs were part-time jobs. Simply put, the economy shed 276,000 full-time jobs." Mish further noted that "A Gallup Survey yesterday (Thursday) on Jobs show the percentage of workers working part time but wanting full-time work was 10.1% in February, an increase from 9.6% in January, and the highest rate measured since January 2012....and...fewer Americans are working full-time for an employer than were doing so a year ago, and more Americans are working part time. Although part-time work is clearly better than no work at all, these are not the types of good jobs that millions of Americans are still searching for."
Mish wrote simply, "Obamacare is in play. Recall that under Obamacare, the definition of full-time employment is 30 hours. The BLS cutoff is 34 hours. At 30 hours, companies have to pay medical benefits so they have been slashing the number of hours people work. This reduced the number of hours people worked and provided an incentive for many to take on an extra job."
(My cmt: Furthermore, companies that cut hours for their employees had to hire more part time employees to fill the gaps created when they cut the hours of their existing employees.)
Mish concluded: "The reported 236,000 surge in the establishment survey is not real. It will be revised away."
Full story at...
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2013/03/spoiling-great-employment-news.html
FED TO CUT MORTGAGE PURCHASES (WSJ) –
"With the housing market recovering, Federal Reserve
officials may change the pace of purchases of mortgage-backed securities, a
tool central bank officials have used to push down mortgage rates and boost the
housing market. In remarks prepared for a speech Friday night in Avon, Colo.,
Federal Reserve Gov. Elizabeth Duke also said the central bank's policies have
helped the housing market recover from the deepest bust in decades. "I think the evidence is pretty clear that a recovery in the housing market is finally under way," Ms. Duke said...” Full story at…
http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130308-713230.html
MARKET
RECAP
Monday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.3% to 1,556 (rounded). VIX fell about 8%, to 11.56.
Monday, the S&P 500 finished up 0.3% to 1,556 (rounded). VIX fell about 8%, to 11.56.
Market internals
are improving; this market may have some positive surprises yet.
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM analysis remained HOLD at the close.
MY INVESTED POSITION
With long-term funds, I remain about 20% invested in stocks as of 5
March, due to my risk tolerance rather than the numerical NTSM analysis. To put it bluntly, I currently have no
tolerance for risk. (If I were strictly following the NTSM numbers, I'd still be heavily invested in stocks.) My reasoning may be
found at…http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2013/03/why-i-got-mostly-out-of-stock-market.html
