“Sales of existing homes fell 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million, the National Association of Realtors said Monday. That snaps a four-month streak of gains. August sales are down from a July rate of 5.14 million, a figure that was revised slightly downward…The August figures show that real estate recovery has depended largely on investors and all-cash sales, instead of families looking to purchasing a house.” Story at…
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-existing-home-sales-fall-august-25672898
GOING TO JAIL?
A friend sent me this link and suggested I might find it
interesting. I hope he didn’t think I
belonged in jail! It has a number of helpful tips for those who have been convicted
of white collar crimes and are facing time in prison. It wasn’t meant to be funny, but I had to
chuckle at a few points.
PREPARE FOR TIME IN THE SLAMMER (Financial Times)
“Hipwell served almost two months in prison for stock market
manipulation in 2006 …Hipwell explained his crime to an armed robber on his
block. “Like all prisoners, he wanted to know what the proceeds of my crime
were. I told him it was about £40,000, which was pretty much the same as he had
made off with after going into a building society with a sawn-off shotgun. Yet
he was doing eight years and I would be out in a couple of months. He didn’t
think it was unfair; he thought it was brilliant!” Story at…http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/b01b3fe2-383a-11e4-a687-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3E08UWL5I
MARKET REPORT
Monday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.8% to 1994 (rounded). VIX was up about 14% to 13.69.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dropped to 2.56% at the close.
It appears that there is a bit of flight to safety
(safety = S&P 500) going on since the S&P 500 has been performing
better than the smaller cap stocks such as the Russell 2000. That was especially true today. It is the reason that the Internals have been
looking worse than the S&P 500 index recently.
HORRIBLE INTERNALS (Business Week)
“People are
looking for an excuse to knock the market back down a little bit,” Donald
Selkin, chief market strategist for New York-based National Securities Corp.,
which oversees about $3 billion, said in a phone interview. “The internals for
the market are horrible today. Maybe the feeling is that we might finally be
ready for a more serious down move.” This Story covered a number of subjects and can be found at...http://www.businessweek.com/news/2014-09-22/u-dot-s-dot-stock-index-futures-fall-as-china-damps-policy-bets
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) fell to 41% at the close Monday after it had improved last week. In a reversal to the downside, New-lows outpaced
New-highs Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was minus-128.
(It was +19 Friday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread dropped
to minus-22. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased
by 22 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of
Up-Volume is still advancing so the internals remained neutral; otherwise they
would have been negative.
The new-high/new-low data looks pretty bad and it is
suggesting further downside ahead.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these internals
alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive
out on Negative – no shorting). Of
course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme low-volatility,
straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM is HOLD. All indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50% invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August. The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy signal. 50% is Fully invested for me since I am semi-retired.
--INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ENSCO’s chart doesn’t look good now since it has fallen below prior lows as the oil drillers have not performed well. On the plus side, dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is somewhat limited.
“TOO CHEAP TO IGNORE (Forbes)
“Ensco has a strong buy rating according to ValuEngine
and is 19.6% undervalued with a one-year price target at $50.25.” – Story at…
