Tuesday, September 2, 2014

ISM Manufacturing Index Up…Euro-Zone Slowing…Hussman on Investor “Delusions”…Crash? No, Way!...Correction? Maybe

MARKET REPORT
I’ll post the daily Market Report and Market Analysis after the close. Here’s some news…
 
ISM
The ISM Manufacturing Index increased to 59.0 in August, up from 57.1 in July…The data have…not been either a good forecasting tool or a good read on current conditions during this business cycle. It must be recognized that the index is not hard data of any kind, but simply a survey that provides broad indications of trends.” Story at...
https://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/napm.htm

EURO-ZONE SLOWING (Bloomberg)
“Markit Economics said its euro-area gauge fell more than initially estimated last month, with the index for Italy unexpectedly dropping below 50, indicating the first contraction in 14 months. ‘The economic slowdown which began in the euro-zone core in spring is spreading,’ said Christian Schulz, an economist at Berenberg Bank in London. ‘The latest escalation of Russia’s aggression, and the likely stepping up of Western sanctions and Russian countersanctions, indicate that the overall weakness could get worse.’” Story at...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-01/u-k-factory-index-drops-to-14-month-low-on-global-risks.html

HUSSMAN THOUGHTS (Hussman Funds)
“We fully expect that the phrase “QE bubble” will soon enough join the list of phrases like “housing bubble,” “tech bubble,” “dot-com bubble,” “New Economy,” “go-go years,” and “roaring 20’s.” The delusions associated with each period seem self-evident now. It is easy to forget that overvalued, overbought, overbullish extremes are the same today as they were at those points, and investors then believed precisely the same thing: this time is different.” – John Hussman, PhD, Letter to Shareholders at…
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/pdf/annrep14.pdf

50% CRASH? NO WAY SAYS RALPH ACAMPORA (CNBC)
“Ralph Acampora is one of Wall Street's most-respected technicians. So what does he make of the recent cases for a mega-downturn made by analysts such as Abigail Doolittle, who calls for a 50 to 60 percent ‘correction’ based on her technical analysis?  ‘I hear that and I see what they're talking about, but these people have been saying that for a long time," he said Thursday on CNBC's "Futures Now." …’I could see 5, 6, 7 percent maybe. But in the order of 20, 30 percent? No. No way.’” Story at…

CORRECTION (CNBC)
"We've gone 35 months without a decline of 10 percent or more, and the median since World War II is 12 months," said Sam Stovall, S&P's chief equity strategist. "Everybody seems to be waiting for that all-elusive correction, when everyone will pile in. But if everybody's waiting for it, it won't happen." Part of a story about active managers underperforming the S&P 500 Index at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101955148