Monday, September 8, 2014

Fed to Shift Policy Earlier than Expected…Risk of Fed Policy…Take Risk Off…Increased Bank Reserves Means Trouble for the Markets

STOCK MARKET REPORT
I’ll post the daily Stock Market Report and Stock Market Analysis after the close. Here’s some news…
 
FED POLICY MAY SHIFT SOONER THAN EXPECTED (Reuters)
“Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser, the loan dissenter at the Fed's July policy meeting, on Saturday continued his push for the U.S. central bank to change its language on monetary policy to reflect an improving economy and pave the way for a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike.” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/06/us-usa-fed-plosser-idUSKBN0H10F520140906?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

FED ECONOMISTS SEE FED POLICY RISKS (Bloomberg)
“Monetary policy accommodation to help the economy may backfire by creating conditions that could undermine financial stability and cause sharp downturns, according to a report by two top Federal Reserve researchers. Central banks “should consider effects on both financial conditions and financial stability when setting monetary policy,” according to a preliminary paper by…the Fed’s Office of Financial Stability Policy and Research in Washington.” Story at…
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-05/fed-economists-see-financial-stability-risk-from-low-rate.html

TIME TO TAKE SOME RISK OFF THE TABLE - GARTMAN (CNBC)
“The weak momentum seen in equity markets is starting to trouble Dennis Gartman, the editor and publisher of the ‘The Gartman Letter,’ who believes that it might be the right time to take some risk off the table.”  Story at…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101973990

THIS WILL CAUSE TROUBLE: NEW BANKING RULES TIGHTEN “LIQUIDITY” (ABC News)
“Federal regulators are requiring big banks to keep enough high-quality assets on hand to survive during a severe downturn, the latest move under congressional mandate to lessen the likelihood of another financial meltdown. The Federal Reserve adopted rules on a 5-0 vote Wednesday that will subject big U.S. banks for the first time to so-called "liquidity" requirements. Liquidity is the ability to access cash quickly. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. and the Treasury Department's Office of the Comptroller of the Currency adopted the rules later in the day…The liquidity rules for banks will begin to take effect in January, and the requirements will be phased in over two years.” Story at…
http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/banks-required-hold-liquid-assets-25228216
Essentially, this regulation increases reserve requirements for the banks.  Norman Fosbeck noted in his book, “Stock Market Logic,” that changes in reserve requirements for the nation’s city banks by the Federal Reserve are the single most important indicator in stock market analysis.  It has been suggested by some market experts that the bull market began in earnest when the Fed abandoned “mark-to-market” rules on bank assets during the housing debacle.   This effectively decreased bank reserve requirements because large amounts of negative assets disappeared from their books. Conversely, increases in reserves are uniformly bearish, but it could be more than a year before this regulation affects the stock market; or possibly as soon as January.