Monday, the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2002 (rounded).
VIX rose about 5% to 12.73.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note rose slightly 2.47%
at the close; the bond Ghouls remain worried.
(This may actually be foreign demand driving down yields rather than
fear of an economic decline.)
The daily up/down moves in the market continue to be
abnormally small and that usually leads to a pullback of some kind. I doubt
that it will be the “big one”.
RSI
RSI (14-day SMA) was 72 Monday at the close. 70 is the overbought
value for this indicator.
LATE DAY BUYING
There was some late day buying so the pros aren’t
convinced that a correction is coming.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) remained 52% at the close Monday. (A number above 50% for the 10-day average is
generally GOOD news for the market. The
average in a normally rising market is 53%.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Monday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +91 (It was +56 Friday). The 10-day moving
average of change in the spread increased to +1. In other words, over the last
10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 1 each day.
Internals remained neutral on the market, but they did
improve a little today so perhaps the market will once again climb to new highs.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Monday, the NTSM is HOLD. The volume indicator is Positive. All other
indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the
charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50%
invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.
The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals
both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy
signal. 50% is Fully invested for me since I am semi-retired. --INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY…Sort of…see below
For my initial discussIon see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
Dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is limited.
Friday ESV broke lower on higher volume so the stock isn’t looking good at this point for those who are holding Ensco as a trade. Volume today was down, but perhaps not enough to stem the tide of decline. On the other hand…
“Ensco attracts heavy call buying…” (Yahoo Finance)
Looks like the options boys like it at today’s price.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ensco-attracts-heavy-call-buying-104523422.html
