“The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more than expected last week, suggesting that a sharp slowdown in job growth last month was probably an aberration… Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 280,000 for the week ended Sept. 13…” Story at…
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/18/us-usa-economy-unemployment-idUSKBN0HD1FR20140918
HOME CONSTRUCTION FALLS (WSJ)
”U.S. home construction fell last month after surging to
a post-recession high in July, a sign of choppy progress in the housing market.”
Story at…http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-housing-starts-fall-in-august-after-robust-july-1411043746
MARKET REPORT
Thursday, the S&P 500 was up about 0.5% to 2011 (rounded). VIX was down about 5% to 12.03.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury Note dipped slightly to 2.61% at the close.
CORRECTION SOON? PROBABLY NOT
The pullback that looked imminent a few days ago seems to
have been postponed. Internals have been improving even though they are still
below “good” numbers.
The negatives for the short term are twofold: (1) the
index is very near the upper trend line and (2) Thursday was
statistically-significant because the size of today’s move was higher than the
recent normal as measured by standard deviation from the norm. That implies Friday would be a down-day about
62% of the time and could lead to a reversal. Still, there is no indication that
a pullback (if it were to occur) would more than 5% and that would be a normal
retreat within the generally advancing bull-market.
MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
The 10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE) jumped to 46% at the close Thursday. (A number below 50% for the 10-day average is
generally BAD news for the market. The
average in a normally rising market is 53%.) New-highs outpaced New-lows Thursday. The spread (new-highs minus new-lows) was +40.
(It was +25 Wednesday). The 10-day moving average of change in the spread rose
to minus-8. In other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased
by 8 each day. The smoothed 10-dMA of
Up-Volume is advancing.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2013, using these
internals alone would have made a 16% return vs. 30% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive out on Negative – no shorting).
Of course, few trend-following systems will do well in an extreme
low-volatility, straight-up year like 2013.
NTSM
Thursday, the NTSM is HOLD. The volume indicator is Positive. All other
indicators are neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION
I made a BUY call on Monday, 18 August 2014 because the
charts were looking better; therefore, I upped my invested percentage to 50%
invested in stocks on Tuesday 19 August.
The 5-10-20 Timer and Market Internals
both gave positive signals on 19 August confirming the previous day’s Buy
signal. 50% is Fully invested for me since I am semi-retired. --INDIVIDUAL STOCKS FROM A VALUE HOUND--
ENSCO (ESV): BUY
For my initial discussion see the NTSM blog at:
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/2014/05/coppock-curve-says-stock-crash-nowblow.html
ENSCO’s chart doesn’t look good now since it has fallen below prior lows as the oil drillers have not performed well. On the plus side, dividend is 6%. PE is 8.5 so downside is somewhat limited.
“Ensco attracts heavy call buying…” (Yahoo Finance) 9/8/2014
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ensco-attracts-heavy-call-buying-104523422.html
“All of the drillers are getting killed. I'd stick with Ensco International (ESV)." – Jim Cramer, Mad Money. 9/11/2014
