“Private-sector employment slowed a bit in September,
according to data released Wednesday morning. Employers added 154,000
private-sector jobs last month, down from 175,000 in August, Automatic
Data Processing Inc. reported. This
is the smallest increase since April.” Story at…
FACTORY ORDERS (CNBC/Reuters)
“New orders for U.S. factory goods increased slightly in
August, a further sign that the manufacturing sector is beginning to regain
some steam. The Commerce Department said on Wednesday that new orders for
manufactured goods rose 0.2 percent…” Story at….
ISM SERVICES (Morningstar)
“A gauge of U.S. service-sector activity rose to the
highest level in nearly a year in September, a sign of steady growth for a key
segment of the economy. The Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday said
its nonmanufacturing index jumped to 57.1 in September…” Story at….
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Reuters)
“The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said
crude stockpiles fell 3 million barrels last week, opposite of forecasts of
analysts polled by Reuters for a build of 2.6 million barrels. Since the
beginning of September, U.S. crude stocks have plunged 26 million barrels, but
inventories remain at their highest in this century…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 was up about 0.4% to 2160 at
the close.
-VIX dipped about 5% to 12.99.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.72%. (This indicates
selling of Treasuries since price moves are opposite to the yield.)
A “symmetrical wedge” is a chart pattern comprised of
higher lows and lower highs that come together in a triangle pattern. The S&P 500 chart has been in a small
symmetrical wedge for the past month or so.
This pattern is a continuation pattern that usually (not always)
resolves in the direction that the Index has been going. In this case, the recent
overall trend is up so we should look for a break up (but possibly down) on
high volume to indicate a break from the pattern. A change is coming in the
short-term.
My Short-term indicators are mixed. That just confirms the confusion in the
chart.
Long-term, I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a
conservative-retiree allocation) – that’s hold my nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO): Established Thursday, 22 Sep.
The short-term indicators are mixed, so I am watching to
see if the Index breaks out from its stalled, going-nowhere pattern.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 49.9%. (54.1% yesterday.) A number below 50% is usually BEARISH
for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 54.1%. (A
value above 50% indicates an up-trend.)
- McClellan Oscillator: improved from -31 to -7
(percentage calculation method).
- New-highs minus new-lows: +100 (It was +45 yesterday.) This
is a good number that is bullish.
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +5. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 5
each day.
Market Internals
remained neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday the Price, Volume, VIX & Sentiment
indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the
S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep in my long-term accounts based
on a number of indicators. Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a
conservative retiree allocation.
