UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (Bloomberg)
“Filings for U.S. unemployment benefits were at a
four-decade low over the past two weeks as sales prospects encouraged employers
to maintain headcounts. Jobless claims were 246,000 in the period ended Oct. 8,
unchanged from the previous week’s level….” Story at…
CRUDE INVENTORIES (Reuters)
“Oil prices settled up on Thursday after a U.S.
government report showing hefty draws in diesel and gasoline offset the first
crude inventory build in six weeks. Crude prices fell initially when the U.S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude stocks swelled 4.9 million
barrels in the week ended Oct. 7…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2133 at
the close.
-VIX rose about 5% to 16.69.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.74%.
(Investors were buying Treasuries.)
Comeback might be the word for the day. The S&P 500 was down over 1% in the
morning, but fought back the rest of the day and nearly was in the green until
late-day selling took over and pulled the market back to a 0.3% loss. This
market action was encouraging until it faded in the afternoon. Still on a longer-term
basis, late day buying has been bullish, so it is hard to short this
market. The chart doesn’t scream sell
either since it hasn’t managed to break much below its longer-term trend line.
The Index is near its lower Bollinger Band and that
suggests some buying may not be far behind. The percentage of advancing stocks
moved up today on a 10-day basis and that may signal a turn up. Although my
Money Trend indicator continued down, it slowed and appears like it may turn up
soon. Those are bullish indicators and
it wouldn’t take much to make me go long again. If VIX were to spike higher it
might offer an opportunity to trade XIV-ETF (short the VIX), but I suspect that
today might have been the better chance to take a position; I just didn’t get a
good signal. SSO (2x long the S&P 500 ETF) may be the preferred trading-long
position if I do get a decent signal.
Bearish indications remain: My sum of 16-daily indicators
went from minus-6 to minus-5 (mildly bullish), but this is a volatile series. I
keep a 10-day sum of the indicator and it dropped from -22 to -28 (not a moving
average) and that is bearish.
Mixed signals remain, but there are hints of a bullish
resolution – we shall see.
Long-term, I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a
conservative-retiree allocation) – that’s hold my nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
No trading: “Money-Trend” and my “Sum-of-all-indicators”
both remain trending down; other indicators are up.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 44.7%. (43.5% yesterday.) A number below 50% is usually
BEARISH for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 53.3%. (A
value above 50% indicates a long-term, up-trend.)
-McClellan Oscillator: declined from -45 to -57 (percentage
calculation method).
-New-highs minus new-lows: -6 (It was +2 yesterday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: -8. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has decreased by 8
each day.
Market Internals switched
from negative to neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday the VIX indicator was negative. Price, Volume,
& Sentiment indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator
remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep in my long-term accounts
based on a number of indicators. Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a
conservative retiree allocation.
