“New orders and production at factories increased,
although employment fell — a sign that manufacturers have yet to fully
stabilize after a difficult year. The Institute for Supply Management said
Monday that its manufacturing index rose to 51.5 in September from 49.4 in
August.” Story at…
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING (Seattle Times)
“U.S. builders trimmed spending on construction projects
in August for a second straight month with housing, non-residential and
government activity all seeing declines. Construction spending dropped 0.7
percent in August after a 0.3 percent slip in July…” Story at…
THE BUBBLE (Hussman Funds)
“Presently, the broad NYSE Composite Index is at a lower
level than it set more than 2 years ago, in July 2014. Including dividends, the
index has gained hardly 2%. Several indices dominated by large capitalization
or speculative growth stocks, particularly the S&P 500, have performed
better, but even here, the index is only a few percent above its December 2014
high. Over the past two years, the behavior of the stock market can be
described less as an ongoing bull market than as the extended topping phase of
what is now the third financial bubble since 2000.” – John Hussman, Weekly
Market Commentary.
FINANCIAL LIST OF DEPLORABLES (AnthonyIsola.com)
“Equity-Indexed
Annuities – How about an
investment with limited upside but large potential for a substantial loss?
Throw in a 10% sales charge and no dividend participation (50% of
historic market returns) and we have the ingredients for a deplorable
retirement scenario.” – Anthony Isola.
For the rest of the list see…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Monday the S&P 500 was down about 0.3% to 2161 at
the close.
-VIX rose about 2% to 13.57.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 1.62%.
My daily sum of 16-indicators moved down from +3 to -2.
This series shows a lot of fluctuation so a smoothed value is more
telling. On a 10-day basis, indicators
improved so overall, indicators still remain bullish. Money Trend and Smart
Money indicators remain looking up too, but are slowing so this needs watching.
I remain short-term bullish and 2200 to 2250 seems
likely. Long-term, I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a conservative-retiree
allocation) – that’s hold my nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
2x S&P 500 ETF (SSO): Established Thursday, 22 Sep.
MONDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 54.1% (56.7% Friday.) A number above 50% is usually BULLISH
for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 54.4%.
(A value above
50% indicates an up-trend.)
- McClellan Oscillator: improved from +4 to -7
(percentage calculation method).
- New-highs minus new-lows: +56 (It was +95 Friday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: +1.
In other words,
over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has increased by 1 each day.
Market Internals switched
to neutral on the market. They were bullish Friday..
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Monday the Price indicator was bullish. Volume, VIX & Sentiment indicators were
neutral. Overall the long-term indicator remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep in my long-term accounts
based on a number of indicators other than Long Term. Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This
is a conservative retiree allocation.
