“Medical costs are continuing to rise at a faster pace than
virtually everything else…The consumer price index, a measure of average price
changes and inflation, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 1.5% year-on-year…” Story
at…
SECULAR BULL OR THE 70’S? (Real Investment Advice)
“Despite much hope that the current breakout of the
markets is the beginning of a new secular “bull” market – the
economic and fundamental variables suggest otherwise. Valuations and
sentiment are at very elevated levels which are the opposite of what has
been seen previously. Interest rates, inflation, wages and savings rates are
all at historically low levels which are normally seen at the end of
secular bull market periods, not the beginning of one.” Commentary at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 2140.
-VIX fell about 6% to 15.28.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.75%.
Things are looking better Tuesday. “Money Trend” was up;
“Sum of all indicators” was flat on a smoothed basis and bullish on the day; and
“Smart Money” (late day action) was still trending down as of Tuesday’s close. The
Overbought/Oversold Ratio (Advance Decline Ratio) cleared its oversold
reading. At this point it looks like a
reversal to the upside is in the offing. Money Trend is my most reliable
short-term indicator and it is just reversing to the upside. Monday’s low of 2126 tested the 14 September
low of 2126 on lower volume so it would appear that there was a decent signal
foretelling the up-day Tuesday – or so it seems. Short-term it now looks like “up”
is the most likely direction this week based on reversals today. The way my
luck has gone recently the markets will probably crash Wednesday.
Long-term, I’m fully invested at 50% in stocks (a
conservative-retiree allocation) – that’s hold my nose bullish.
TRADING PORTFOLIO
2x Dow (DDM) Established 18 Oct.
(I am trading more than I like to in an effort to regain
losses from holding my short too long after the February correction. So far, it
has not worked out. )
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
-10-day moving average of the percentage of stocks
advancing (NYSE): 47.3%. (42.5% yesterday.) A number below 50% is usually
BEARISH for the markets short-term.
-150-day moving average of advancing stocks: 53.4%. (A
value above 50% indicates a long-term, up-trend.)
-McClellan Oscillator: improved from -53 to -20
(percentage calculation method).
-New-highs minus new-lows: 43 (It was 6 Monday.)
-10-day moving average of the change in spread: 0. In
other words, over the last 10-days, on average, the spread has remained
unchanged each day.
Market Internals improved
to neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday the Price, VIX, Volume, & Sentiment
indicators were neutral. Overall the long-term indicator remained HOLD.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in
the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 23 Sep in my long-term accounts
based on a number of indicators. Remainder is 50% G-Fund. This is a
conservative retiree allocation.
