Thursday, April 13, 2017
Crude Inventories … … Stock Market Analysis … Trading ETFs and ETF Ranking
CRUDE INVENTORIES (fuelfix.com)
There have been no long-term Buy or Sell signals in a while. The last signal was a BUY on 23 February and the last actionable signal was a BUY (from a prior sell) on 15 November 2016.
“The energy sector received bullish inventory data Wednesday as the nation’s stockpiles of crude oil and refined fuels fell. A week after hitting a record-high level of crude storage, U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 2.2 million barrels….The inventory news is expected to further boost oil prices…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Wednesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.4% to 2345.
-VIX rose about 5% to 15.77 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 2.24%.
The S&P 500 Index is 0.3% under its 50-dMA. Now the question is, “Will we get the test of the 2142 level?” It seems likely but there were some bullish signs today.
-Wednesday was statistically significant, meaning the outsized down day (on a statistical basis) usually is followed by a positive day.
-Bollinger bands are close to the lower band, about 0.4% above the lower band.
-There have been only 7 up-days in the last month and that can sometimes be a bottom indicator.
-The XLI is underperforming the S&P 500. Cyclical stocks are under stress and they often lead in a correction.
-VIX has been climbing recently.
-Up-volume is falling.
-Money Trend is now pointed down.
-Late day action was down today and the 20-dMA of late day action is sharply down (The Pros have been selling.)
-My Sum of 16 Indicators dropped from -5 to -10.
-The % of stocks on the NYSE that are advancing is now falling.
-RSI is neutral.
Let’s see what happens at the 2142 level, if we get there.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
1. Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) remains the top ranked ETF.
(I took positions in XLF and XLK Wednesday, 29 March.) My guess is that XLF will rebound after a correction as the interest rates rise.
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the total portfolio)
No positions. Until the market makes a decision (up or down) there is no point in guessing. Indicators remain mixed.
WEDNESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals switched to Negative on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from the Index. In 2014, using these internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Wednesday, the VIX indicator was negative; Sentiment, Price & Volume indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24 March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators. Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree allocation based mostly on low volume at the test of the 50-dMA.