“Orders for durable goods rose less than forecast in
March as demand for automobiles, fabricated-metal products and machinery all
declined, Commerce Department data showed Thursday…Bookings for goods meant to
last at least three years rose 0.7 percent…” Story at…
UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (Seattle Times)
“More Americans filed for unemployment benefits last
week, but applications remained at a low level that suggests most workers enjoy
job security…The Labor Department says weekly jobless claims rose by 14,000 to
257,000…” Story at…
HOME SALES (Fox Business)
“Pending home sales fell 0.8% from a month earlier to an
index of 111.4, the trade group National Association of Realtors said Thursday.”
Story at…
CASS FREIGHT INDEX – March Report (CASS Information
Systems)
“Both the Shipments and Expenditures Indexes have now
been positive for three months in a row. Throughout the U.S. economy, there are
a growing number of data points suggesting that the economy is getting better.”
Press release at…
My cmt: The report noted that year-over-year Shipments
are up 0.9% and Expenditures are up 3%.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Thursday the S&P 500 was up about 0.06% to 2389.
-VIX dropped about 5% to 10.36 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped to 2.297%.
Thursday, advancing stocks were even with declining stocks; only
39% of volume was up-volume; but there were 264-new-highs with only 25-new
lows - overall a neutral day. Oil was down more than 1% and that
usually puts pressure on the S&P 500. There may be some angst as the Index
approaches the prior high of 2396. Today’s close is 0.3% below the all-time
high. It didn’t bother the Nasdaq though; the Nasdaq Composite was up
nearly 0.4%.
Mostly bullish signs continue:
-My Sum of 16-Indicators was unchanged at +6 today; down
slightly from +7 yesterday. Longer term the indicators continue to improve.
Market Internals look good and new-high/new-low data remains bullish.
-Money Trend is still moving sharply up – bullish too.
-Bollinger Bands (2-std deviations above and below the
S&P 500 Index) were not overbought today as the upper-band moved up.
One brown shoot…
The Overbought/Oversold Index is “overbought” today. It is
based on the number of stocks advancing over the last 10-days.
I remain bullish short-term and cautiously bullish longer
term.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
No1 is Technology (XLK).
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
No positions.
I was shellacked in recent trades so no short-term
trading for a while. Long is the call
now though, as it has been since the Index closed above the 50-dMA.
THURSDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
are positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Thursday, Sentiment was negative; Price was positive;
Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation.
