“Sales of newly-constructed homes throttled to the
highest in nearly a year in March as the housing recovery picked up steam. New-home
sales ran at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 621,000…” Story at…
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (USA Today)
“Consumer confidence dipped in April but remained near a
16-year high amid solid job and income growth. An index of Americans'
outlook fell to 120.3 from a downwardly revised 124.9 in Mar…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 rose about 0.6% to 2389.
-VIX slipped about 0.7% to 10.76 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 2.334%.
Random Thoughts:
The 5-10-20 Timer System signaled “Buy” today. Both the 5-dEMA and the 10-dEMA or above the 20-dEMA.
Bollinger Bands are overbought, but don’t’ worry. The
market has been so calm that Bollinger Bands (2-std deviations above and below
the Index) were very close together. A
down move would have quickly given an oversold reading. As it happened, the
up-move triggered an “overbought” reading.
The bottom line is that Bollinger Bands may not be giving a good signal
now.
Here come the dip-buyers:
Tuesday we had another
statistically significant up-day (based on statistical analysis of daily market
volatility) and that is followed by a down-day about 62% of the time. That may be true Wednesday (there could be
some profit taking), but I think we should see a run to all-time highs and then
higher over the next several months. It may be slow due to the
sell-in-May-and-go-away mantra, but overall I think the markets will move
higher in the near term.
My Sum of 16-Indicators was +7 today; yesterday it was +8. Longer
term the indicators have significantly improved. Market Internals look good and
new-high/new-low data continues to improve and remain bullish.
As far as a near-term correction, it looks more like
“no-correction” is the call now. I have shifted to moderately bullish.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
I would avoid XLE; its 120-dMA is now trending down.
No1 is Technology (XLK).
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
No positions.
I was shellacked in recent trades so no short-term
trading for a while. I have been a
passable (not great) trader in recent years, but last year and the start of
this one have been disastrous.
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
are positive on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Tuesday, Sentiment was negative; Price was positive;
Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation.
