“U.S. home re-sales rose more than expected in March to
the highest level in more than a decade as more homes came on the market and
were quickly snapped up by consumers. The National Association of Realtors said
on Friday that existing home sales increased 4.4 percent…” Story at…
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Friday the S&P 500 dipped about 0.3% to 2349.
-VIX rose about 3% to 14.63 at the close.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose slightly to 2.248%.
Indicators are mostly flat or mixed. My Sum of
16-Indicators is zero, a neutral value.
Even the Late-day action is now flat, but the recent trend has been down,
so we’ll see.
At this point the chart remains the key. I’ve moved my red-line up to align with the
statistically-significant day Thursday.
That’s in-line with the others earlier in March and is now the same as
the 50-dMA shown in green. The Index failed to break thru yesterday and again
today. To break this down-trend, it needs to close 3% above the red line or
close higher on 2-consercutive days. So far – the down-trend (albeit small)
remains intact. I read a piece that said a break of the 50-day implied 3 months
of sideways movement based on past instances.
The odds may favor sideways action; but a bigger correction is possible.
As far as a near-term correction, the jury is still out. I’m leaning “Bear” but I have been wrong a
lot on short-term calls recently.
CURRENT RANKING OF 15 ETFs (Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading ETF. While momentum isn’t stock performance per
se, momentum is closely related to stock performance. For example, over the 4-months
from Oct thru mid-February 2016, the number 1 ranked Financials (XLF) outperformed
the S&P 500 by nearly 20%.
*For additional background on the ETF ranking system see
NTSM Page at…
I would avoid XLE; its 120-dMA is now trending down.
No1 is Technology (XLK).
SHORT-TERM TRADING PORTFOLIO - 2017 (Small-% of the
total portfolio)
Rydex Inverse 2x Nasdaq 100. Established 4/13/2017.
VXX. Established 4/13/2017.
This pullback could
be over quickly (or already) so these positions will not be held long if the
market closes above the upper downtrend line.
FRIDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE DATA)
Market Internals
turned Neutral on the market.
Market Internals are a decent trend-following analysis of
current market action, but should not be used alone for short term trading.
They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index. In 2014, using these
internals alone would have made a 9% return vs. 13% for the S&P 500 (in on
Positive, out on Negative – no shorting).
LONG TERM INDICATOR
Friday, Sentiment was negative; Price was positive;
Volume & VIX indicators were neutral.
MY INVESTED STOCK POSITION:
TSP (RETIREMENT ACCOUNT – GOV EMPLOYEES) ALLOCATION
I increased
stock allocation to 50% stocks in the S&P 500 Index fund (C-Fund) Friday, 24
March 2017 in my long-term accounts, based on short-term indicators.
Remainder is 50% G-Fund (Government securities). This is a conservative retiree
allocation.
