NFIB OPTIMISM (NFIB)
“The NFIB Small
Business Optimism Index decreased one point in September to
99.1. Three of the 10 Index components improved, five declined, and two were
unchanged. ‘Small business owners are doing their best to meet the needs of
customers, but are unable to hire workers or receive the needed supplies and
inventories,” said NFIB
Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. The outlook for economic
policy is not encouraging to owners, as lawmakers shift to talks about tax
increases and additional regulations.’” Press release at...
JOLTS – JOB OPENINGS (Fox Business)
“The number of job openings in the
U.S. slipped off a record high in August as the quits rate increased to a record
high. The total number of job openings fell by 659,000 to a seasonally
adjusted 10.439 million at the end of August, according to the Labor
Department’s Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS.” Story at...
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/jolts-job-openings-labor-turnover-survey-august-2021
THE 5000-YEAR VIEW OF RATES AND THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES
(Real Investment Advice)
“’Interest
rates haven’t been this low in 5,000-years.’ [says Bank of
America] ...Yes, rates will probably rise at some point in the next
5000-years. However, currently, the primary argument is that rates
must increase because they are so low. That argument fails in understanding
that low rates are emblematic of weak economic growth rates, deflationary
pressures, and demographic trends...any significant rise in rates almost
immediately leads to recessionary spats in the economy...for now, I am long
bonds and continue to buy more whenever someone claims the “Great Bond
Bull Market Is Dead.”” – Lance Roberts. Commentary at...
https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-5000-year-view-of-rates-the-economic-consequences/
MORE PEOPLE HAVE DIED UNDER BIDEN THAN TRUMP (Washington
Examiner)
“...more people have died from COVID-19 under President
Joe Biden than under former President Donald Trump....It is amusing how, in
year one of the pandemic, every story about the virus was a “blame Trump”
story. Absolutely nothing Biden has done is working, yet Biden really never
gets blamed for anything.” – Washington Examiner. Story at...
More
people will have died from COVID under Biden than Trump (msn.com)
I don’t think that either President can be “blamed” for
virus-deaths, but it’s astonishing that the media’s lack of objectivity has
been so completely exposed.
CORONAVIRUS (NTSM)
Here’s the latest from the COVID19 Johns Hopkins website
as of 5:00 PM Tuesday. U.S. total case numbers are on the left axis; daily
numbers are on the right side of the graph in Red with the 10-dMA of daily
numbers in Green. I added the smoothed 10-dMA of new cases (in purple) to the
chart.
MARKET REPORT / ANALYSIS
-Tuesday the S&P 500 dropped about 0.2% to 4351.
-VIX dipped about 1% to 19.85.
-The yield on the 10-year Treasury slipped to 1.575%.
PULLBACK DATA
Days since Top: 30 days; Average correction length for
corrections <10% = 33
Drop from the Top: 5.2% max; 4.1% at today’s close.
Average total correction decline (top to bottom) over the last 10-years = 13%,
ignoring major crashes.
Today, we had extremely high,
unchanged-volume on the NYSE. In theory
this in an indication that investors are confused and it can signal a reversal.
I’ve tried to develop an indicator based on this without much success. Sometimes it’s true; sometimes not.
Unlike yesterday, XLU-ETF (Utilities) outperformed the
S&P 500 today. That does suggest the pullback will continue.
Today, was another Distribution Day on the S&P 500. That makes 7 distribution-days in the last 5
weeks. “A distribution day is a
significant decline in the Nasdaq or S&P 500 in higher volume than was seen
in the previous session. IBD defines a "significant decline" as a
drop of more than 0.2%, with no rounding up. A distribution day indicates
unusually heavy selling by institutional investors, the heavyweights who
largely set a market's direction. Four or five distribution days over several
weeks nearly always signal that stocks have topped and are heading for a
downturn.” Definition from...
My VIX indicator improved to neutral, but the 50-dMA of
the % of issues advancing on the NYSE remains below 50%.
The daily sum of 20 Indicators improved from -5 to zero
(a positive number is bullish; negatives are bearish); the 10-day smoothed sum
that smooths the daily fluctuations improved from -41 to -38 (These numbers
sometimes change after I post the blog based on data that comes in late.) Most
of these indicators are short-term and many are trend following.
The Long Term NTSM indicator
ensemble remained HOLD. VIX, Volume, Price & Sentiment indicators are
neutral.
Russell 2000 was up 0.6% while
the other major indices were down. That looks like a bullish sign. The S&P 500 broke below its 100-dMA and that's bearish. As is often the case, the tea leaves are confused.
Overall though, I remain bearish until we see more
bullish indications.
MOMENTUM ANALYSIS:
TODAY’S RANKING OF 15 ETFs
(Ranked Daily)
The top ranked ETF receives
100%. The rest are then ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading
ETF.
*For additional background on
the ETF ranking system see NTSM Page at…
http://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/exchange-traded-funds-etf-ranking.html
TODAY’S RANKING OF THE DOW 30
STOCKS (Ranked Daily)
Here’s the revised DOW 30 and
its momentum analysis. The top ranked stock receives 100%. The rest are then
ranked based on their momentum relative to the leading stock.
For more details, see NTSM
Page at…
https://navigatethestockmarket.blogspot.com/p/a-system-for-trading-dow-30-stocks-my_8.html
TUESDAY MARKET INTERNALS (NYSE
DATA)
Market Internals remained NEUTRAL on the market.
Market Internals are a decent
trend-following analysis of current market action, but should not be used alone
for short term trading. They are usually right, but they are often late. They are most useful when they diverge from
the Index.
My stock-allocation in the
portfolio is now about 45% invested in stocks; this is below my “normal” fully
invested allocation of 50%.
You may wish to have a higher
or lower % invested in stocks depending on your risk tolerance. 50% is a
conservative position that I consider fully invested for most retirees.
As a general rule, some
suggest that the % of portfolio invested in the stock market should be one’s
age subtracted from 100. So, a
30-year-old person would have 70% of the portfolio in stocks, stock mutual
funds and/or stock ETFs. That’s ok, but
for older investors, I usually don’t recommend keeping less than 50% invested
in stocks (as a fully invested position) since most people need some growth in
the portfolio to keep up with inflation.
